Race IntelligenceChattanooga, Tennessee, United States
Know your day before you race it.
Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.
Published route evidence. Final 2026 route pending. Checked 17 Sept 2026.
01 Race Card
Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.
02 The course
You swim point to point down the Tennessee River, starting 2.4 miles upstream of transition and riding the current for all but the last stretch. You then ride three loops on US-27 north of the city, on rolling terrain with a dedicated lane and fresh pavement, before two rolling loops through downtown Chattanooga and over Veterans Bridge to finish at Ross's Landing. The danger here is the swim. It is genuinely fast because of the current, and it is very easy to carry that false read into the bike.
Swim
3.8 km
A point-to-point swim that runs downstream for all but the final stretch, so the split you record here says more about the river than about your swimming.
Source: 2026 current routeBike
180.2 km
Three loops on US-27 with a dedicated lane and fresh pavement, on terrain the organiser calls rolling, which rewards a steady power ceiling over reacting to each rise.
Source: 2026 current routeRun
42.2 km
Two rolling loops through downtown, over Veterans Bridge and along the Riverwalk, where the repeated bridge crossings come late enough to hurt.
Source: 2026 current routeThese facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2026 current route; bike, 2026 current route; run, 2026 current route. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2026 route.
03 Race plan
One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.
Swim
The swim runs with the current for all but the final stretch between the red turn buoy and Ross's Landing. Your split will look fast. That is the river, so take the free time and keep your effort honest.
Bike
The course leaves transition on Riverfront Parkway and heads out to US-27 before the loops begin. Use this section to settle on the power number you intend to hold for the whole ride, not the one the swim split just talked you into.
The organiser calls this course rolling, and the same terrain repeats three times. Riding over each rise rather than through it is what leaves a marathon intact.
By the third time on the same road you know exactly what the terrain does. Hold the ceiling here and ride back into Chattanooga with the marathon still in mind.
Run
The run heads straight into downtown Chattanooga and onto the Riverwalk, with spectators the whole way. The course is rolling rather than flat, so let the opening kilometres feel genuinely easy.
The loop crosses Veterans Bridge and takes in the North Shore. The climbs are short, but you meet them twice, and the second crossing is the one that counts.
Starting the same loop again gives you a clean comparison. If loop two is already slipping badly against loop one, the bike was ridden too hard, and the response is to manage the fade rather than fight it.
The last stretch comes down Riverfront Parkway to the finish at Ross's Landing, where the day started in transition. If the bike ceiling held across three loops, this is where that shows.
04 Race week
There is no useful 2026 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.
A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.
Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-17.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2026.
05 Method
Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.
Confidence is built from four inputs
It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a full distance that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.
The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard full distance distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.
It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?
Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:
It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.
Evidence
Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2026 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-17.