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Race IntelligenceKailua-Kona, Hawaii, United States

IRONMAN World Championship

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
10 October 2026
Swim
3.8 km
Bike
180.2 km
Run
42.2 km

Published route evidence. Final 2026 route pending. Checked 17 Sept 2026.

Official course routeThe real GPS route for each discipline with official GPX data available, drawn in one shared coordinate space.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Kona actually gives you

You start in the water off Kailua Pier and swim an out-and-back in Kailua Bay, then ride the Queen Kaahumanu Highway north through the lava fields to the Hawi turnaround and back, exposed to the crosswinds this course is famous for. The marathon runs out and back along Alii Drive, climbs Palani Road onto the highway, and drops into the Energy Lab before returning to finish in Kona town. This is the one course where the conditions, not the profile, decide the day.

Show distances in

Swim

3.8 km

Ocean Bay, Out and Back

Layout
Out and back, clockwise
Setting
Kailua Bay, starting in the water off Kailua Pier

An in-water start in a sheltered bay with small swells, which is the gentlest part of this day and the one place the island gives something back.

Source: 2026 published route

Bike

180.2 km

Exposed Lava Fields, Out and Back

Layout
Out and back, with the climb to Hawi at the turnaround
Setting
the Queen Kaahumanu Highway, from Kailua-Kona to the Hawi turnaround and back

An exposed out-and-back on the Queen Kaahumanu Highway through lava fields, where crosswinds and the climb to Hawi matter far more than the gradient profile suggests.

Source: 2026 published route

Run

42.2 km

Rolling Coastal Road and Highway, Out and Back

Layout
Out and back on Alii Drive, then out and back to the Energy Lab
Setting
Alii Drive, Palani Road, the Queen Kaahumanu Highway and the Energy Lab at NELHA

A rolling out-and-back that leaves the coast for the highway and drops into the Energy Lab, arriving at the hottest, most exposed part of the course at the worst possible time.

Source: 2026 published route
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2026 published route; bike, 2026 published route; run, 2026 published route. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2026 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

The kindest part of the day

  1. 0–3800 m

    Kailua Bay, out and back

    Start controlled in a very fast field

    An in-water mass start in clear water with small swells, surrounded by the most competitive field you will ever line up in. The temptation to go with the feet in front of you is the whole risk here.

    • Settle by 400 m
    • Swim your own effort, not the pack's

Bike

Hawi is not the finish line

  1. 0 km–60 km

    Out onto the Queen K

    The lava fields are hotter than they look

    The highway heads north through open lava field with no shade at all. Radiant heat off the rock is part of the load here, so start drinking and cooling from the first kilometre rather than waiting to feel hot.

    • Fix power well below what feels easy
    • Start fluid and cooling immediately

  2. 60 km–100 km

    The climb to Hawi

    Do not race the turnaround

    The road climbs to the Hawi turnaround, often into the crosswinds that make this course famous. This is where the strongest riders lose their marathon, spending on a climb that is still only halfway.

    • Cap power on the climb
    • Stay patient in the crosswind

  3. 100 km–180.2 km

    Back down the highway

    Free speed, not free effort

    The return is faster, and it is the last chance to take on fluid and fuel before a marathon in the heat. Take the speed the descent gives you without adding effort to it.

    • Keep drinking all the way to T2
    • Resist chasing riders on the return

Run

Everything is saved for the Energy Lab

  1. 0 km–16 km

    Alii Drive

    The crowds here are a trap

    The opening out-and-back on Alii Drive is flat, loud and close to the sea, and it feels far better than the rest of the day will. Run it slower than it feels like you should.

    • Hold opening pace despite the crowd
    • Take ice and fluid at every aid station

  2. 16 km–26 km

    Palani Road onto the highway

    The climb that changes the race

    Palani Road climbs off the coast onto the Queen Kaahumanu Highway. Many athletes walk here for the first time. Arriving at this climb with something left is what the whole bike was for.

    • Shorten stride up Palani
    • Accept a slower climb rather than a walk after it

  3. 26 km–34 km

    Into the Energy Lab

    The hottest place, at the worst moment

    The course drops into the Energy Lab at NELHA, the most exposed and heat-trapped section, at exactly the point in a marathon where you are most vulnerable. Everything about the day up to here is about arriving able to run this.

    • Cool at every opportunity
    • Run the descent in gently, it has to be climbed out of

  4. 34 km–42.2 km

    Highway back to Kona town

    What is left is what you saved

    The return along the highway and the final lap through Kona town is where a patient bike and a controlled Alii Drive finally pay. Nobody arrives here fresh, so this is a question of who slowed least.

    • Run on effort, not on the goal time
    • Keep taking fluid to the line

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2026 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
23.6–27.6°CDew point centred on 22.2°C
Wind and gusts
6.4 km/hGusts up to 29.5 km/hPrevailing direction WSW
Rain likelihood
Up to 85%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-17.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2026.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2026 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a full distance that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard full distance distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Kona is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeFull-distance training plansTraining plans for the durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan, feedback and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleFull-distance race strategy: calm execution beats chaosThe pacing discipline an exposed, hot out-and-back demands.ArticleFix the first ten minutes off the bikeUseful before a marathon that climbs Palani Road and drops into the Energy Lab.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2026 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-17.