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Race IntelligenceVancouver, British Columbia, Canada

T100 Vancouver

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
15 August 2027
Swim
2 km
Bike
80 km
Run
18 km

Published route evidence. Final 2026 route pending. Checked 22 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Your first useful race-day range

Four current benchmarks are enough to begin. I combine them with this course and 500 plausible race days.

Your four current benchmarks
Change units
Distance unit
Weight unit
Add race contextOptional. Experience, goal and bike setup make the range more personal.
Race context
Projected field position Optional. This only compares your predicted time with your race category; it does not change your range.
Refine your range with recent resultsOptional. One recent effort or a known setup detail can make part of your range more specific.

Start with your first range. Add any details you know; they can narrow the relevant discipline, explain its uncertainty, or flag a race-day risk.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These give the bike estimate more detail on mass, aerodynamics, tyres and power.

Run evidence

A recent effort, plus realistic durability and heat-acclimation answers, gives the post-bike run more context.

Race execution

Your transition experience adjusts the T1/T2 range and helps us account for wet conditions.

02 Read the course

What this course asks of you

You swim 2 km in cold Pacific water off Locarno Beach, over two laps with an Aussie exit between them, then ride 80 km across four laps out to the University of British Columbia and back along NW and SW Marine Drive, climbing NW Marine Drive and West 4th Avenue on every lap. The run is 18 km over three laps mixing Jericho Beach Park with an out-and-back section along the seawall. Cold water, a repeated climb with no published gradient, and three honest run laps are what shape this course, not raw difficulty. Let the course set the context for your effort.

Show distances in

Swim

2 km

Ocean, 2 Laps With an Aussie Exit

Layout
2 laps, clockwise
Setting
Locarno Beach, next to Jericho Sailing Centre

A cold-water ocean swim over two laps, almost certainly wetsuit-legal under World Triathlon's temperature rule.

Source: 2026 published course, 2027 not yet republished

Bike

80 km

Closed-road, Four Laps Out-and-back Along Nw/sw Marine Drive With a Named Climb

Layout
4 laps
Setting
NW Marine Drive and SW Marine Drive around the University of British Columbia

Four laps out to UBC and back, each one repeating a named but unmeasured climb up NW Marine Drive.

Source: 2026 published course, 2027 not yet republished

Run

18 km

Packed Trail, Three Laps of Jericho Beach Park and the Seawall

Layout
3 laps
Setting
Jericho Beach Park and an out-and-back section along the seawall

Three laps mixing Jericho Beach Park with a seawall out-and-back, giving three honest checkpoints on the day.

Source: 2026 published course, 2027 not yet republished
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2026 published course, 2027 not yet republished; bike, 2026 published course, 2027 not yet republished; run, 2026 published course, 2027 not yet republished. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2026 route.

03 Race decisions

Where you protect your day

Each phase has one clear job. The course tells you when that job changes.

Swim

Cold water, two laps

  1. 0–1000 m

    Lap 1

    Respect cold water on the first lap

    Water in the mid-to-high teens Celsius is a real physiological adjustment. Use the first lap to settle your breathing before racing.

    • Controlled breathing in cold water
    • Sight toward the Aussie exit

  2. 1000–2000 m

    Lap 2

    Race once you've settled, not before

    The Aussie exit is a natural reset. Use it to check effort before starting the second lap.

    • Reset at the exit
    • Hold, don't chase, on lap two

Bike

Four laps, one climb each time

  1. 0 km–20 km

    Lap 1: the climb

    Ride the NW Marine Drive climb on effort, not on a number

    No gradient is published for this named climb. Set the effort you'll repeat three more times rather than a wattage that assumes flat road.

    • Climb on perceived effort
    • Cap opening watts on the flats

  2. 20 km–60 km

    Laps 2-3

    Repeat the climb the same way twice more

    The middle laps are where a climb ridden too hard on lap one starts to show. Match lap one's effort on the climb each time.

    • Match lap one's climb effort
    • Fuel on the same schedule each lap

  3. 60 km–80 km

    Lap 4

    Finish the climb you started with, not the one you have left for

    The final lap repeats the same named climb on tired legs. Finish it at the same effort as lap one.

    • Stay patient on the last climb
    • Finish nutrition before T2

Run

Three laps, three checkpoints

  1. 0 km–6 km

    Lap 1

    Open controlled on the packed trail

    Jericho Beach Park and the seawall give a scenic but honest opening lap. Run it a shade easier than goal pace.

    • Hold opening pace
    • Take aid at the lap point

  2. 6 km–12 km

    Lap 2

    Use the second lap as the real checkpoint

    Passing the Jericho Sailing Centre lap-decision point a second time is an honest read on the bike's four climbs.

    • Compare lap two to lap one
    • Adjust deliberately

  3. 12 km–18 km

    Lap 3

    Spend what three even laps earned

    The final lap along the seawall and back through Jericho Beach Park is where a disciplined bike gets to pay out.

    • Run the last lap on effort
    • Finish through the line

04 Race-week review

What could change your plan

There is no useful 2026 forecast this far out. For now, use past race dates to know what you may need to manage. Closer to the race, we can decide whether the plan needs to move.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
15.5–22.6°CDew point centred on 14.9°C
Wind and gusts
9.7 km/hGusts up to 32.4 km/hPrevailing direction SSE
Rain likelihood
Up to 45%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-22.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2026.

05 Confidence

How solid is your range?

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create your first range. Add evidence where you have it and the calculation reflects more of your actual situation. Anything still unknown stays visible, so you know what to revisit before race day.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2026 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a T100 that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard T100 distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

The calculation estimates a plausible range of race days and shows where the uncertainty sits. Placing, exact weather and your in-the-moment decisions remain outside the range.

Confidence changes as the evidence improves. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad, then rises as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Take it forward

If Vancouver matters to you

Use your card to practise the decisions that matter before race day gets noisy.

Choose the support that fits what you need.

Personalised coachingTurn your Race Card into a race you can execute.I’ll help you decide what to train, what to practise and what to leave alone as the course and forecast become clearer.See coachingSelf-guided planHalf-distance training plansTraining plans for the race duration this course sits inside.See the plans

Further reading

ArticleFix the first ten minutes off the bikeUseful before a three-lap run that gives an honest read on four laps of an unmeasured climb.ArticleHow to pace a half-distance race so you can still runThe pacing discipline a repeated, unmeasured climb demands.

Evidence

Show me the evidence

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2026 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 22 Sept 2026.