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Race IntelligenceSamarkand, Uzbekistan

Challenge Samarkand

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
22 August 2027
Swim
1.9 km
Bike
86 km
Run
21.5 km

Published route evidence. Final 2027 route pending. Checked 15 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Samarkand actually gives you

You swim one calm loop from the pier of a purpose-built rowing centre, ride 86 km past Registan, Bibi-Khanum and centuries of Silk Road history into modern Samarkand, then run four flat laps around the rowing canal inside the Silk Road Samarkand complex. The bike is genuinely remarkable and genuinely distracting. The run rewards whatever discipline the bike's history didn't cost you.

Show distances in

Swim

1.9 km

Purpose-built Rowing Basin

Layout
1 loop
Setting
the pier of the Silk Road Samarkand rowing centre

A calm, purpose-built rowing basin keeps the swim controlled and predictable.

Source: current course description

Bike

86 km

Historic Monuments and Modern City Streets

Setting
the Silk Road Samarkand tourist complex, past the Registan Ensemble, the Bibi-Khanum mausoleum, the Amir Temur monument and the ancient Afrosiab market, through modern Samarkand
Elevation
644 m published profile difference

A genuinely historic route past some of Central Asia's most famous monuments rewards even effort over sightseeing.

Source: current course description

Run

21.5 km

Flat, Around a Rowing Canal

Layout
4 loops
Setting
the Silk Road Samarkand tourist complex, around the picturesque rowing canal
Elevation
6 m published profile difference

A flat, four-lap canal-side course favours rhythm once the bike's history lesson is behind you.

Source: current course description
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, current course description; bike, current course description; run, current course description. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2027 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

One calm loop from the pier

  1. 0–1900 m

    One loop from the rowing centre pier

    Use the calm basin to settle early

    A purpose-built rowing basin gives you calm, controlled water. Settle into rhythm early and use the pier as a fixed sighting reference.

    • Settle by 300 m
    • Sight off the pier and basin edges

Bike

Ride past history, don't stop for it

  1. 0 km–43 km

    Past the Registan and Bibi-Khanum

    Let the monuments be scenery, not pace cues

    Riding past some of Central Asia's most famous architecture is genuinely remarkable. Hold your planned effort through it rather than slowing to look or surging with excitement.

    • Check effort before average speed
    • Start fuelling early

  2. 43 km–86 km

    Into modern Samarkand

    Carry the same discipline into the city streets

    As the route moves into modern Samarkand's streets, keep the same effort you held through the historic sections.

    • Ride the same number throughout
    • Finish your nutrition before T2

Run

Hold four flat laps to one standard

  1. 0 km–10.75 km

    Laps 1 and 2

    Find your legs around the canal

    The flat, picturesque rowing canal gives consistent footing and consistent feedback across four laps. Use the first two to find a sustainable pace.

    • Shorten your stride out of T2
    • Take every aid station on every lap

  2. 10.75 km–21.5 km

    Laps 3 and 4

    Decide deliberately in the Eternal City

    Use the first half as honest evidence before deciding whether laps 3 and 4 are where you push, finishing inside the 'Eternal City' complex.

    • Compare the back half to the front honestly
    • Keep the finish decision yours

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2027 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
18.9–34.9°CDew point centred on 4.6°C
Wind and gusts
9.3 km/hGusts up to 34.6 km/hPrevailing direction ENE
Rain likelihood
Up to 15%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-15.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2027.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2027 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a 70.3 that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard 70.3 distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Samarkand is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeHalf-distance training plansTraining plans for the fitness and durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan, feedback and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleHow to pace a 70.3 so you can still runThe longer version of the swim-bike-run pacing logic behind this Race Card.ArticleMarginal gains in triathlon: a costly mythUseful perspective on holding a planned effort across repeated laps rather than chasing small edges.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2027 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-15.