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Race IntelligenceDubai, United Arab Emirates

T100 Dubai

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
15 November 2026
Swim
2 km
Bike
80 km
Run
18 km

Published route evidence. Final 2026 route pending. Checked 22 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Your first useful race-day range

Four current benchmarks are enough to begin. I combine them with this course and 500 plausible race days.

Your four current benchmarks
Change units
Distance unit
Weight unit
Add race contextOptional. Experience, goal and bike setup make the range more personal.
Race context
Projected field position Optional. This only compares your predicted time with your race category; it does not change your range.
Refine your range with recent resultsOptional. One recent effort or a known setup detail can make part of your range more specific.

Start with your first range. Add any details you know; they can narrow the relevant discipline, explain its uncertainty, or flag a race-day risk.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These give the bike estimate more detail on mass, aerodynamics, tyres and power.

Run evidence

A recent effort, plus realistic durability and heat-acclimation answers, gives the post-bike run more context.

Race execution

Your transition experience adjusts the T1/T2 range and helps us account for wet conditions.

02 Read the course

What this course asks of you

You swim 2 km in the ocean from Al Mamzar's beach, the first year this race has used a single venue for the whole day, then ride an 80 km out-and-back through Al Hamriya Port and Dubai Islands, climbing the Infinity Bridge past Port Rashid before turning back along the coast to Al Mamzar. The run is a flat 18 km through Al Mamzar Park and its corniche footpath. Nothing about the course is severe on paper; the real work is pacing a warm, non-wetsuit swim and an exposed midday bike into a flat run in rising Gulf heat. Let the course set the context for your effort.

Show distances in

Swim

2 km

Ocean, Single Venue

Setting
Al Mamzar beach and park, Dubai

A single ocean swim from a consolidated beach venue, in water the organiser's own note puts above the non-wetsuit threshold.

Source: 2026 current route

Bike

80 km

Closed-road Out-and-back Via Al Hamriya Port, Dubai Islands and the Infinity Bridge

Setting
Al Hamriya Port, Dubai Islands and the Infinity Bridge, passing Port Rashid and the Dubai skyline

An out-and-back route that climbs the Infinity Bridge before returning along the coast, with no published elevation figure to size that climb by.

Source: 2026 current route

Run

18 km

Flat, Shaded Park and Corniche Footpath

Setting
Al Mamzar Park and its corniche footpath, Dubai

A flat run through shaded park and a new corniche footpath, the one leg where the course itself asks little beyond managing the heat.

Source: 2026 current route
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2026 current route; bike, 2026 current route; run, 2026 current route. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2026 route.

03 Race decisions

Where you protect your day

Each phase has one clear job. The course tells you when that job changes.

Swim

Settle in warm water

  1. 0–2000 m

    The swim

    Race a warm, non-wetsuit swim on effort

    Water in the high 20s means no wetsuit buoyancy to lean on. Swim your own stroke rate rather than chasing feet that are moving differently through the water than you remember.

    • Settle into rhythm early
    • Sight rather than chase

Bike

Out to the bridge and back

  1. 0 km–40 km

    Out through the port and islands

    Set a number you can hold into the climb

    The outbound leg through Al Hamriya Port and Dubai Islands is the fresh half of the ride, before the Infinity Bridge asks a real question with no published gradient to plan against.

    • Cap opening watts
    • Fuel on schedule before the bridge

  2. 40 km–80 km

    The Infinity Bridge and the return

    Ride the bridge on effort, not on the number you rode outbound

    The climb onto the Infinity Bridge and the coastal return past Port Rashid are the back half of an out-and-back course with no elevation figure published. Let effort, not a fixed wattage, decide the climb.

    • Hold effort over the bridge
    • Finish nutrition before T2

Run

Hold pace through the heat

  1. 0 km–9 km

    Al Mamzar Park

    Start controlled in the heat

    A flat run gives no natural brake. Starting a shade too easy matters more here than on a course with real terrain to slow you down.

    • Hold opening pace for 2 km
    • Take fluid at every station

  2. 9 km–18 km

    The corniche footpath to the finish

    Manage the heat, then decide the finish

    The new corniche footpath closes out a flat run in what is usually the warmest part of the morning. Spend what a sane bike left, and use the shade where the route gives it.

    • Use aid stations to cool, not just drink
    • Decide the finish honestly

04 Race-week review

What could change your plan

There is no useful 2026 forecast this far out. For now, use past race dates to know what you may need to manage. Closer to the race, we can decide whether the plan needs to move.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
20.7–31.2°CDew point centred on 15.8°C
Wind and gusts
10.1 km/hGusts up to 31.0 km/hPrevailing direction SE
Rain likelihood
Up to 25%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-22.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2026.

05 Confidence

How solid is your range?

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create your first range. Add evidence where you have it and the calculation reflects more of your actual situation. Anything still unknown stays visible, so you know what to revisit before race day.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2026 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a T100 that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard T100 distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

The calculation estimates a plausible range of race days and shows where the uncertainty sits. Placing, exact weather and your in-the-moment decisions remain outside the range.

Confidence changes as the evidence improves. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad, then rises as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Take it forward

If Dubai matters to you

Use your card to practise the decisions that matter before race day gets noisy.

Choose the support that fits what you need.

Personalised coachingTurn your Race Card into a race you can execute.I’ll help you decide what to train, what to practise and what to leave alone as the course and forecast become clearer.See coachingSelf-guided planHalf-distance training plansTraining plans for the race duration this course sits inside.See the plans

Further reading

ArticleHeat adaptation strategies for triathletesPreparation for a race the organiser's own water-temperature note flags as warm, non-wetsuit-legal racing.ArticleFix the first ten minutes off the bikeUseful before a flat 18 km run with no terrain to disguise an over-ridden bike.

Evidence

Show me the evidence

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2026 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 22 Sept 2026.