Coaching

Training Plans

All plansSprintOlympic DistanceHalf Distance / 70.3Full DistanceHalf AquabikeFull AquabikeOff-SeasonPregnancy

Articles

All articlesTraining PhilosophyAthlete Life & LongevityRace Strategy & ExecutionMental PerformanceThe Technical Lab
Race CalendarAboutContact

Race IntelligenceLusail, Qatar

T100 World Championship Final

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
12 December 2026
Swim
2 km
Bike
80 km
Run
18 km

Published route evidence. Final 2026 route pending. Checked 22 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Your first useful race-day range

Four current benchmarks are enough to begin. I combine them with this course and 500 plausible race days.

Your four current benchmarks
Change units
Distance unit
Weight unit
Add race contextOptional. Experience, goal and bike setup make the range more personal.
Race context
Projected field position Optional. This only compares your predicted time with your race category; it does not change your range.
Refine your range with recent resultsOptional. One recent effort or a known setup detail can make part of your range more specific.

Start with your first range. Add any details you know; they can narrow the relevant discipline, explain its uncertainty, or flag a race-day risk.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These give the bike estimate more detail on mass, aerodynamics, tyres and power.

Run evidence

A recent effort, plus realistic durability and heat-acclimation answers, gives the post-bike run more context.

Race execution

Your transition experience adjusts the T1/T2 range and helps us account for wet conditions.

02 Read the course

What this course asks of you

You swim a single 2 km rolling-start lap in the Arabian Gulf from the Lusail Ferry Dock, ride four identical 20 km laps of Lusail's closed urban streets, then run three identical 6 km laps through Lusail Plaza and Boulevard. Every discipline here repeats the same short loop several times, which makes this one of the most self-revealing courses on the tour: the fourth bike lap and the third run lap show exactly what the first one cost. Let the course set the context for your effort.

Show distances in

Swim

2 km

Sea, Single Lap, Rolling Mass Start

Layout
1 lap
Setting
the Arabian Gulf, from the Lusail Ferry Dock

A single-lap rolling-start sea swim from the Lusail Ferry Dock, the calmest and shortest part of the day.

Source: 2026 current route

Bike

80 km

Closed-road, Four Laps of Lusail's Streets

Layout
4 laps
Setting
Lusail's urban streets, 4 laps of 20 km each

Four identical closed-road laps of Lusail's streets mean the fourth lap exposes exactly whatever pacing mistake was made on the first.

Source: 2026 current route

Run

18 km

Flat, Three Laps Through Lusail Plaza and Boulevard

Layout
3 laps
Setting
Lusail Plaza and Boulevard, 3 laps of 6 km each

Three identical laps through Lusail Plaza and Boulevard give three honest checkpoints on whatever the bike left behind.

Source: 2026 current route
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2026 current route; bike, 2026 current route; run, 2026 current route. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2026 route.

03 Race decisions

Where you protect your day

Each phase has one clear job. The course tells you when that job changes.

Swim

One honest lap

  1. 0–2000 m

    The single lap

    A rolling start rewards patience, not a sprint

    Athletes enter the water every couple of seconds rather than all at once. There is no gun to sprint off, so settle into your own rhythm from the first stroke.

    • Start on your own rhythm
    • Find water then settle

Bike

Four laps, one number

  1. 0 km–20 km

    Lap 1

    Set the number the other three laps will repeat

    The closed Lusail streets feel fast on a fresh first lap. Set a wattage you can hold identically three more times, not the number that feels easy right now.

    • Cap opening watts
    • Note your lap-one split

  2. 20 km–60 km

    Laps 2 and 3

    Match lap one, don't chase it

    The middle two laps are where small drift compounds unnoticed. Compare each lap split to the first rather than only to how the legs feel.

    • Hold the same watts as lap one
    • Fuel on the same schedule each lap

  3. 60 km–80 km

    Lap 4

    Finish what you started, not what you have left

    The final lap is identical terrain on tired legs. Finish it at the same number as the first three, then let T2 be the transition, not the recovery.

    • Stay patient
    • Finish planned nutrition before T2

Run

Three laps, three checkpoints

  1. 0 km–6 km

    Lap 1

    Open the first loop controlled

    A flat, three-lap run gives an honest early read. Run the first loop a shade easier than goal pace.

    • Hold opening pace
    • Take aid every lap

  2. 6 km–12 km

    Lap 2

    Use the second loop as the real checkpoint

    Passing the same landmarks a second time tells you plainly whether the bike was ridden sanely. Adjust the plan honestly here, not on the last lap.

    • Compare lap two to lap one
    • Adjust deliberately, not emotionally

  3. 12 km–18 km

    Lap 3

    Spend what three even laps earned

    The final loop through Lusail Plaza and Boulevard is where a disciplined bike and two even run laps get to pay out.

    • Run the last lap on effort
    • Finish through the line, not to it

04 Race-week review

What could change your plan

There is no useful 2026 forecast this far out. For now, use past race dates to know what you may need to manage. Closer to the race, we can decide whether the plan needs to move.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
16.7–26.5°CDew point centred on 14.1°C
Wind and gusts
13.5 km/hGusts up to 39.2 km/hPrevailing direction NW
Rain likelihood
Up to 55%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-22.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2026.

05 Confidence

How solid is your range?

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create your first range. Add evidence where you have it and the calculation reflects more of your actual situation. Anything still unknown stays visible, so you know what to revisit before race day.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2026 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a T100 that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard T100 distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

The calculation estimates a plausible range of race days and shows where the uncertainty sits. Placing, exact weather and your in-the-moment decisions remain outside the range.

Confidence changes as the evidence improves. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad, then rises as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Take it forward

If Qatar matters to you

Use your card to practise the decisions that matter before race day gets noisy.

Choose the support that fits what you need.

Personalised coachingTurn your Race Card into a race you can execute.I’ll help you decide what to train, what to practise and what to leave alone as the course and forecast become clearer.See coachingSelf-guided planHalf-distance training plansTraining plans for the race duration this course sits inside.See the plans

Further reading

ArticleHeat adaptation strategies for triathletesUseful preparation for Gulf racing conditions even in Qatar's cooler December window.ArticleFix the first ten minutes off the bikeUseful before a three-lap run that gives an honest read on every lap.

Evidence

Show me the evidence

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2026 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 22 Sept 2026.