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Race IntelligenceVichy, France

IRONMAN Vichy

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
22 August 2027
Swim
3.8 km
Bike
180 km
Run
42.2 km

Published route evidence. Final 2027 route pending. Checked 15 Sept 2026.

Official course routeThe real GPS route for each discipline with official GPX data available, drawn in one shared coordinate space.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Vichy actually gives you

You swim one calm loop of the Allier River at first light, ride a single 180 km loop through Auvergne's Limagne plain and the Livradois-Forez Regional Natural Park, climbing 9.5 km to La Guillermie before rolling 'toboggan' terrain past Lapalisse, then run four flat, fast loops around Lac d'Allier and Vichy's parks. The climb and the rolling terrain that follows it, not the flat run, are what actually decide this day.

Show distances in

Swim

3.8 km

River

Layout
1 loop
Setting
the Allier River

A calm single loop of the Allier River, at first light, gives a low-technicality opening before a demanding bike.

Source: 2027 current route

Bike

180 km

Rolling Countryside With One Major Climb

Layout
1 loop
Setting
Auvergne, through Bellerive, the Limagne plain, the Livradois-Forez Regional Natural Park, Châteldon, La Guillermie, Ferrières-sur-Sichon, Arronnes, Cusset and Lapalisse

A genuinely varied single-loop route through Auvergne, with a real 9.5 km climb to La Guillermie and rolling 'toboggan' terrain later on, makes even pacing the whole bike's real test.

Source: 2027 current route

Run

42.2 km

Flat and Fast, Four Loops

Layout
4 loops
Setting
Lac d'Allier and Vichy's parks

A flat, fast four-loop course around Lac d'Allier gives constant, repeatable feedback on how a demanding bike has left the legs.

Source: 2027 current route
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2027 current route; bike, 2027 current route; run, 2027 current route. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2027 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

One calm loop at first light

  1. 0–3800 m

    One loop of the Allier

    Settle into a long day

    A single calm loop of the Allier River at first light gives a controlled, low-resistance opening. Settle into a pace you can hold for the whole 3.8 km.

    • Settle by 400 m
    • Breathe on a fixed pattern

Bike

Pace the climb, respect the toboggan

  1. 0 km–35 km

    Through Bellerive and the Limagne plain

    Settle in before the climbing starts

    The fast opening kilometres along the Allier and across the Limagne plain are ideal for finding your aero position and rhythm. Use them to settle, not to spend.

    • Cap effort on the fast opening
    • Fuel before the climb starts

  2. 35 km–63 km

    Into the Livradois-Forez and the climb to La Guillermie

    Ride the 9.5 km climb to a number

    The steady climb to La Guillermie averages 3.7% over 9.5 km, the course's defining ascent. Ride it to your planned power, not to the shade the switchbacks offer.

    • Hold target watts on the climb
    • Use the switchbacks to settle, not to surge

  3. 63 km–90 km

    The descent to Ferrières-sur-Sichon and on to Cusset

    Recover on the descent without losing focus

    A two-part descent from the course's high point leads through Ferrières-sur-Sichon, then technical sections into Arronnes before a long false-flat downhill to Cusset. Stay alert through the technical entries.

    • Brake early into technical village entries
    • Use the false flat to recover, not to coast

  4. 90 km–132 km

    Past Lapalisse to the toboggan terrain

    Respect the rolling terrain, it's harder than it looks

    After fast, straight kilometres past Bost and Billezois to Lapalisse's château, the section from La Bruyère to La Croix Rouge is genuinely tougher than its profile suggests: rolling terrain, rougher road surface and very little shade.

    • Don't underestimate the energy cost here
    • Keep drinking through the exposed, shadeless stretch

  5. 132 km–180 km

    The flowing return to Vichy

    Arrive at T2 ready for four flat loops

    A familiar, flowing return along the Sichon River brings you back to Vichy. Finish planned nutrition and let cadence rise before the transition.

    • Finish the planned bottle
    • Let cadence rise before T2

Run

Collect on a bike ridden honestly

  1. 0 km–10.55 km

    Loop one around Lac d'Allier

    Run off a genuinely demanding bike

    The flat, fast run around Lac d'Allier and Vichy's parks is a relief after a climbing, rolling bike course. Use the first loop to settle rather than to make up time.

    • Shorten stride out of T2
    • Let the opening kilometre feel easy

  2. 10.55 km–21.1 km

    Loop two

    Use the repeat as an honest check

    Passing the same lake and parks a second time gives a clear read on how loop one's pace is holding after a demanding bike. Adjust deliberately here.

    • Compare loop two to loop one
    • Keep fuelling on schedule

  3. 21.1 km–31.65 km

    Loop three

    Protect what the climb and toboggan terrain left you

    The third loop is where a hard-ridden climb and rolling terrain start to show up in the legs. Manage effort rather than chasing a pace that's slipping.

    • Reassess goal pace honestly
    • Keep taking aid on schedule

  4. 31.65 km–42.2 km

    Loop four and the finish

    Spend what an honest bike left you

    The final loop finishes around the same lake and parks. If La Guillermie and the toboggan terrain were paced with restraint, this is where it pays off.

    • Decide the finish honestly
    • Save something for the last loop

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2027 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
15.6–29.4°CDew point centred on 13.0°C
Wind and gusts
7.6 km/hGusts up to 32.0 km/hPrevailing direction NW
Rain likelihood
Up to 55%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-15.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2027.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2027 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a full distance that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard full distance distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Vichy is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeFull-distance training plansTraining plans for the climbing durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan, feedback and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleFull-distance race strategy: calm execution beats chaosThe pacing discipline a real climb and rolling terrain demand.ArticleFix the first ten minutes off the bikeUseful before a four-loop run that starts right after a demanding, climbing bike.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2027 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-15.