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Race IntelligenceNice, France

IRONMAN France

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
12 September 2027
Swim
3.8 km
Bike
180.2 km
Run
42.2 km

Published route evidence. Final 2027 route pending. Checked 15 Sept 2026.

Official course routeThe real GPS route for each discipline with official GPX data available, drawn in one shared coordinate space.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What France actually gives you

You swim two loops of open Mediterranean water from Plage des Ponchettes, ride a single mountainous 180.2 km loop through the Alpes-Maritimes hinterland, climbing the steep pitches of Les Pugets before an 18 km high-altitude ascent of the Col de l'Écre via the Gorges du Loup and the Caille and Thorenc plateaus, then run four flat, often hot loops along the legendary Promenade des Anglais. This is one of the most genuinely mountainous full-distance courses IRONMAN runs, and it decides itself on the bike, not the run.

Show distances in

Swim

3.8 km

Open Mediterranean Sea

Layout
2 loops, no Australian exit
Setting
Plage des Ponchettes, in front of the Quai des Etats-Unis

A two-loop open Mediterranean swim from Plage des Ponchettes carries genuine sea exposure, with no Australian exit to break the effort.

Source: 2027 current route

Bike

180.2 km

High-altitude Alpes-maritimes Climbing

Layout
1 loop, shared with 70.3 athletes for the first 26 km
Setting
the hinterland of Nice through the Parc Naturel des Préalpes d'Azur, via Les Pugets, Saint-Jeannet, the Gorges du Loup, the Caille and Thorenc plateaus and Gréolières
Elevation
2400 m published profile difference

A genuinely mountainous single-loop route, climbing Les Pugets before an 18 km high-altitude ascent of the Col de l'Écre, makes this one of the most demanding bike courses in the IRONMAN portfolio.

Source: 2024 file, route since updated per organiser prose

Run

42.2 km

Flat Coastal Promenade, Four Loops

Layout
4 loops
Setting
the Promenade des Anglais, out towards Nice Airport and back

A flat, hot four-loop course along the Promenade des Anglais tests whatever a genuinely mountainous bike has left in the legs.

Source: 2024 file, current course page
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2027 current route; bike, 2024 file, route since updated per organiser prose; run, 2024 file, current course page. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2027 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

Two open-water loops, no reset

  1. 0–3800 m

    Two loops off Plage des Ponchettes

    Settle into open water early

    A two-loop Mediterranean swim with no Australian exit means no built-in reset. Settle into a controlled rhythm from the first strokes and hold it across both loops.

    • Settle by 400 m
    • Sight consistently across both loops

Bike

Climb Les Pugets and the Col de l'Écre the same way

  1. 0 km–26 km

    Shared roads to the Col de Vence

    Ride your own race among the 70.3 field

    The first 26 km, including the climb of Les Pugets to Saint-Jeannet, is shared with 70.3 athletes. Les Pugets is uneven, averaging 3.3% but with three pitches at 10-15% in its first four kilometres. Ride your own plan regardless of who passes.

    • Cap power on Les Pugets' steep pitches
    • Fuel before the Col de l'Écre begins

  2. 26 km–59 km

    The 18 km Col de l'Écre via the Gorges du Loup

    Pace an 18 km climb like it's the whole race

    From km 41, full-distance athletes alone begin an 18 km ascent via the Gorges du Loup. This is the course's defining test. Hold your planned power the entire way, not just at the start.

    • Ride to power, not to the athletes around you
    • Keep drinking through the sustained climb

  3. 59 km–90 km

    The Caille and Thorenc plateaus

    Manage the high plateau before the descent

    At km 77 the course heads onto the Caille and Thorenc plateaus, genuinely new terrain even for athletes familiar with prior editions. Stay controlled here before the descent to Gréolières.

    • Stay on the fuelling schedule at the km 80 personal aid station
    • Manage effort on any remaining rolling terrain

  4. 90 km–140 km

    The descent through Clues de Gréolières

    Recover on the descent without losing focus

    The sumptuous downhill to Gréolières through the Clues de Gréolières offers real recovery after the climbing. Stay alert on the technical sections rather than treating it purely as a rest.

    • Brake early into technical sections
    • Use the descent to recover, not to coast blindly

  5. 140 km–180.2 km

    Back towards Nice

    Arrive at T2 ready for a hot marathon

    The final kilometres bring you back towards Nice and the coast. Finish planned nutrition and let cadence rise before the transition.

    • Finish the planned bottle
    • Let cadence rise before T2

Run

Survive the heat on the Promenade

  1. 0 km–10.55 km

    Loop one along the Promenade des Anglais

    Respect the heat from the first loop

    The run along the legendary Promenade des Anglais, out towards Nice Airport and back, is genuinely hot in the Mediterranean sun. Use every one of the aid stations, placed every 1.8 km, from the first loop.

    • Shorten stride out of T2
    • Use every aid station, not just the ones you feel you need

  2. 10.55 km–21.1 km

    Loop two

    Manage heat, not just pace

    Passing the same stretch a second time gives a clear read on how the heat and a mountainous bike are combining. Adjust for both, not pace alone.

    • Reassess pace against heat, not just fatigue
    • Keep fuelling and hydrating on schedule

  3. 21.1 km–31.65 km

    Loop three

    Protect what the mountains left you

    The third loop is where genuinely mountainous climbing and coastal heat combine to test the legs most. Manage effort rather than chasing a pace that's slipping.

    • Reassess goal pace honestly
    • Keep taking aid on schedule

  4. 31.65 km–42.2 km

    Loop four to the finish

    Spend what an honest bike left you

    The final loop finishes on the Promenade des Anglais next to the beach. If Les Pugets and the Col de l'Écre were paced with real restraint, this is where it pays off.

    • Decide the finish honestly
    • Save something for the beachfront finish

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2027 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
19.3–27.2°CDew point centred on 15.5°C
Wind and gusts
7.8 km/hGusts up to 34.9 km/hPrevailing direction E
Rain likelihood
Up to 55%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-15.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2027.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2027 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a full distance that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard full distance distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If France is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeFull-distance training plansTraining plans for the climbing durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan, feedback and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleFull-distance race strategy: calm execution beats chaosThe pacing discipline a genuinely mountainous bike course demands.ArticleFix the first ten minutes off the bikeUseful before a four-loop run that starts right after 2,400 m of published climbing.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2027 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-15.