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Race IntelligencePuerto del Carmen, Spain

IRONMAN Lanzarote

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. Get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and a plan for this course.

Race day
15 May 2027
Swim
3.8 km
Bike
180 km
Run
42.2 km

Published route evidence. Final 2027 route pending. Checked 15 Sept 2026.

Official course routeThe real GPS route for each discipline with official GPX data available, drawn in one shared coordinate space.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Lanzarote actually gives you

You swim from Puerto del Carmen, ride one long loop through Lanzarote's volcanic interior and exposed coastline, then run three loops along the waterfront. The island's wind and heat make restraint the central skill.

Show distances in

Swim

3.8 km

Open Sea, Single Loop

Layout
1 loop
Setting
Playa Grande, Puerto del Carmen

A single-loop Atlantic swim is straightforward but exposed to swell and wind.

Source: 2027 current route

Bike

180 km

Exposed Volcanic Roads, Single Loop

Layout
1 loop
Setting
Lanzarote, including Timanfaya and La Geria

The one-loop volcanic course is hilly, highly exposed and frequently windy; effort matters more than speed.

Source: 2027 current route

Run

42.2 km

Coastal Promenade, Three Loops

Layout
3 loops
Setting
Puerto del Carmen waterfront

Three coastal loops offer little shelter and reward disciplined pacing after a demanding bike.

Source: 2027 current route
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2027 current route; bike, 2027 current route; run, 2027 current route. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2027 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

Settle in the Atlantic

  1. 0–3800 m

    The Atlantic swim

    Settle before the day gets exposed

    Find rhythm early and avoid spending energy fighting swell or other athletes.

    • Settle by 400 m
    • Sight deliberately

Bike

Ride the wind, not the speed

  1. 0 km–90 km

    South and into the volcanic interior

    Keep the ceiling low

    The wind and climbing make speed an unreliable guide. Hold the planned effort through the first half.

    • Cap power in gusts
    • Fuel before the climbs

  2. 90 km–180 km

    The exposed return

    Do not repay the wind

    Stay patient when the course turns into the prevailing wind; the run still waits.

    • Drop power in gusts
    • Finish nutrition before T2

Run

Protect the final three loops

  1. 0 km–14.07 km

    Loop one on the promenade

    Start easier than feels necessary

    The exposed waterfront can feel fast early. Protect the later loops.

    • Shorten stride
    • Take every aid station

  2. 14.07 km–42.2 km

    Loops two and three

    Spend what the bike left

    Use the repeated promenade to make small, deliberate adjustments rather than chasing a pace target.

    • Reassess each lap
    • Save something for the final 5 km

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2027 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
18.2–25.0°CDew point centred on 14.5°C
Wind and gusts
22.9 km/hGusts up to 60.1 km/hPrevailing direction N
Rain likelihood
Up to 40%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-15.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2027.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2027 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a full distance that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard full distance distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Lanzarote is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeFull-distance training plansBuild durability and pacing discipline.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildJoin up the plan and race decisions.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleFull-distance race strategy: calm execution beats chaosPacing discipline for exposed full-distance courses.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2027 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-15.