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Race IntelligenceVitoria-Gasteiz, Spain

IRONMAN Vitoria-Gasteiz

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
11 July 2027
Swim
3.8 km
Bike
180.2 km
Run
42.2 km

Published route evidence. Final 2027 route pending. Checked 15 Sept 2026.

Official course routeThe real GPS route for each discipline with official GPX data available, drawn in one shared coordinate space.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Vitoria-Gasteiz actually gives you

You swim one flat loop at Landa Provincial Park, ride a fast 2.5-loop circuit through Álava and the Camino de Santiago, then run four flat loops through central Vitoria-Gasteiz to Plaza España. This course can produce exceptional bike splits; your job is to leave enough of yourself for all four run loops.

Show distances in

Swim

3.8 km

Flat Lake Loop

Layout
1 loop
Setting
Ulibarri-Gamboa lake at Landa Provincial Park

A flat lake loop at Landa Provincial Park gives a calm, simple start.

Source: 2026 current route

Bike

180.2 km

Fast, Gently Graded Circuit

Layout
2.5 loops
Setting
the Álava region and Camino de Santiago
Elevation
1000 m published profile difference

The fast 2.5-loop Álava circuit has gentle gradients and a famous speed reputation that makes restraint the central skill.

Source: 2026 current route

Run

42.2 km

Flat City Course

Layout
4 loops
Setting
central Vitoria-Gasteiz, finishing at Plaza España

Four flat city loops to Plaza España reward the athlete who treated the bike as an opening act, not the main event.

Source: 2026 current route
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2026 current route; bike, 2026 current route; run, 2026 current route. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2027 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

Use the calm lake

  1. 0–300 m

    The start

    Settle at Landa

    The flat lake makes rhythm easy; do not turn that into an unnecessary effort surge.

    • Seed honestly
    • Settle early

Bike

Respect the reputation

  1. 0 km–90 km

    First circuit

    Ignore the record

    The gently graded roads and course reputation invite a PR chase. Hold target power through the first circuit.

    • Watch watts, not speed
    • Fuel from the start

  2. 90 km–180.2 km

    Final circuit

    Protect four run loops

    Keep the same ceiling through the remaining circuit and finish nutrition before T2.

    • Stay aero
    • Finish planned fuel

Run

Make four steady loops

  1. 0 km–10.55 km

    Loops one

    Start slower than the course feels

    The flat city course and crowd can disguise the cost of a fast bike. Let loop one be controlled.

    • Easy first aid station
    • Check posture

  2. 10.55 km–42.2 km

    Loops two to four

    Progress only when earned

    Use the repeated central-city sections as honest checks, then race the final loop toward Plaza España.

    • Take aid every lap
    • Choose the last move late

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2027 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
13.7–26.5°CDew point centred on 13.8°C
Wind and gusts
9.8 km/hGusts up to 43.6 km/hPrevailing direction N
Rain likelihood
Up to 65%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-15.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2027.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2027 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a full distance that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard full distance distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Vitoria-Gasteiz is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeFull-distance training plansPlans for a fast but durable day.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching for the complete race build.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleFull-distance race strategy: calm execution beats chaosPacing discipline for fast courses.ArticleFix the first ten minutes off the bikeUseful before four city loops.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2027 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-15.