Coaching

Training Plans

All plansSprintOlympic DistanceHalf Distance / 70.3Full DistanceHalf AquabikeFull AquabikeOff-SeasonPregnancy

Articles

All articlesTraining PhilosophyAthlete Life & LongevityRace Strategy & ExecutionMental PerformanceThe Technical Lab
Race CalendarAboutContact

Race IntelligenceThe Woodlands, Texas, United States

IRONMAN Texas

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
24 April 2027
Swim
3.8 km
Bike
180.2 km
Run
42.2 km

Published route evidence. Final 2027 route pending. Checked 17 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Texas actually gives you

You swim point to point across Lake Woodlands from North Shore Park, through a spectator-lined canal to Town Green Park, then ride two loops on the mostly closed Hardy Toll Road, flat and entirely exposed, then run three laps around the lake past Hippie Hollow to finish on Waterway Avenue. This is the North American Championship and the bike is genuinely fast. The heat and the exposure are what decide whether that fast bike turns into a fast day.

Show distances in

Swim

3.8 km

Freshwater Lake, Point to Point

Layout
Point to point, with one turnaround
Setting
Lake Woodlands, from North Shore Park through a spectator-lined canal to Town Green Park

A point-to-point freshwater lake swim with a single turnaround, in water around 23 degrees, which is close enough to the wetsuit limit that the decision can go either way.

Source: 2027 current route

Bike

180.2 km

Flat Exposed Highway, Two Loops

Layout
2 loops on the Hardy Toll Road, mostly closed to traffic
Setting
The Woodlands and Northern Harris County, with two loops on the Hardy Toll Road

Two loops on closed, flat toll road that the organiser calls entirely exposed, so wind and sun set the difficulty rather than terrain.

Source: 2027 current route

Run

42.2 km

Rolling Lakeside Paths and Town Streets, Three Laps

Layout
3 laps
Setting
around Lake Woodlands, past Hippie Hollow, finishing on Waterway Avenue

Three laps around Lake Woodlands in Texas heat, which is where a bike ridden on its fast reputation gets settled.

Source: 2027 current route
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2027 current route; bike, 2027 current route; run, 2027 current route. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2027 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

One lake, one turnaround

  1. 0–3800 m

    Across Lake Woodlands

    Settle early in a simple swim

    A point-to-point lake swim with a single turnaround, finishing through a canal lined with spectators. There is little to navigate, so the only real job is to arrive at T1 without having raced it.

    • Settle by 400 m
    • Keep effort controlled into the canal

Bike

Fast, flat and completely exposed

  1. 0 km–45 km

    Out of The Woodlands

    Set the number before the toll road

    The route leaves The Woodlands for Northern Harris County before the loops begin. Fix your power ceiling here, because once you are on flat closed road at speed it becomes much harder to judge effort honestly.

    • Cap power in the first 30 minutes
    • Start fluid and sunscreen discipline immediately

  2. 45 km–115 km

    Loop one on the Hardy Toll Road

    Exposed means the sun too, not just the wind

    The organiser describes this section as entirely exposed and tells athletes to expect wind and to wear sunscreen. Heat load accumulates quietly on a fast, flat road where you feel a cooling breeze from your own speed.

    • Hold power through any headwind
    • Keep drinking on a fixed schedule

  3. 115 km–180.2 km

    Loop two and back

    The reputation is not a pacing plan

    This course is known for lightning-fast bike splits, which is exactly why athletes over-ride it. Match loop two to loop one and let the course give you the time rather than taking it.

    • Compare loop two power to loop one
    • Finish nutrition before T2

Run

Three laps in the heat

  1. 0 km–14.1 km

    Lap one around the lake

    Start conservatively in the heat

    Three laps around Lake Woodlands, often in real Texas warmth, on a course the organiser labels rolling rather than flat. The opening lap should feel genuinely easy or the third one will not happen.

    • Hold opening pace for the first 5 km
    • Take ice and fluid at every aid station

  2. 14.1 km–28.2 km

    Lap two and Hippie Hollow

    The crowd will not carry you

    Hippie Hollow, with its banners, lights and costumed performers, is one of the best spectator sections in the sport and gets better after dark. Enjoy it without letting it set your pace.

    • Keep effort even through the noise
    • Compare lap two to lap one

  3. 28.2 km–42.2 km

    Lap three to Waterway Avenue

    The third lap is the whole race

    The final lap finishes on Waterway Avenue. Everything about the exposed bike and the first two laps was about arriving here able to run. If you paced it, this is where you collect.

    • Decide the finish honestly
    • Keep cooling to the line

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2027 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
16.2–27.6°CDew point centred on 18.4°C
Wind and gusts
13.0 km/hGusts up to 46.8 km/hPrevailing direction SE
Rain likelihood
Up to 95%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-17.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2027.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2027 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a full distance that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard full distance distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Texas is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeFull-distance training plansTraining plans for the durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan, feedback and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleFull-distance race strategy: calm execution beats chaosThe pacing discipline a fast, exposed two-loop bike demands.ArticleFix the first ten minutes off the bikeUseful before three rolling laps in the heat straight off a fast bike.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2027 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-17.