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Race IntelligenceCozumel, Quintana Roo, Mexico

IRONMAN Cozumel

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
22 November 2026
Swim
3.8 km
Bike
180 km
Run
42.2 km

Published route evidence. Final 2026 route pending. Checked 18 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Cozumel actually gives you

You swim from the Cozumel ASIPONA Marina over the island's coral reefs, ride three flat laps of the island past oceanside roads, the hotel zone and a stretch of the city, then run a flat course along the waterfront and through downtown's historic neighbourhoods to finish at City Hall plaza. IRONMAN markets this as a genuine personal-best course, and it is. The two things that decide how much of that potential you actually collect are Caribbean heat and humidity, and whether you ride the flat three laps to a plan or to the road.

Show distances in

Swim

3.8 km

Ocean Reef

Setting
Cozumel ASIPONA Marina, over the island's coral reefs

A reef swim from the ASIPONA Marina, with clear water and abundant marine life, gives a genuinely scenic but low-technicality opening.

Source: 2026 current route

Bike

180 km

Flat, Three Laps Around the Island

Layout
3 loops
Setting
oceanside roads, the hotel zone and a stretch through the city

Three flat laps of the island, ridden on smooth oceanside roads, remove terrain as an excuse, so power discipline and heat management carry the whole leg.

Source: 2026 current route

Run

42.2 km

Flat, Waterfront and Downtown

Setting
Cozumel's waterfront walk, the main plaza and historic neighbourhoods, finishing at City Hall plaza

A flat course through Cozumel's waterfront and historic downtown, finishing at City Hall, asks the same discipline the bike did, with the same heat still building.

Source: 2026 current route
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2026 current route; bike, 2026 current route; run, 2026 current route. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2026 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

A scenic, low-technicality reef swim

  1. 0–3800 m

    Reef swim from the marina

    Settle into a genuinely scenic, low-drama swim

    Clear water and coral reef views make this one of the sport's more memorable swims, with nothing technical to manage. Settle into rhythm and let the scenery come to you rather than racing it.

    • Settle by 400 m
    • Hold a controlled, sustainable effort

Bike

Three flat laps, one honest number

  1. 0 km–60 km

    First lap of the island

    Set a ceiling before the flat road tempts a PR pace

    Smooth oceanside roads with nothing to check your speed make this course genuinely fast, and genuinely easy to over-ride. Set the power number you can hold for three laps, not the one the road allows for one.

    • Cap power in the first 30 minutes
    • Start fuelling and hydrating early in rising heat

  2. 60 km–120 km

    Second lap through the hotel zone and city

    Hold the ceiling as the heat builds

    Repeating the loop past the hotel zone and through a stretch of the city, the flat terrain still offers no natural check on effort. Caribbean heat is the real variable now, not the road.

    • Recheck power against your plan, not your legs
    • Stay ahead on fluids and electrolytes

  3. 120 km–180 km

    Third lap, closing the bike

    Finish the flat bike still owing the run nothing

    The final lap is where an honestly-paced ride pays off on the run to come. Protect that by holding the same number to the line rather than chasing time back.

    • Finish nutrition before T2
    • Resist any late push on the flat finish

Run

The heat is still building on a flat run

  1. 0 km–10.55 km

    Onto the waterfront

    Open slower than a flat course invites

    The run starts along Cozumel's waterfront walk with nothing in the terrain to slow you down except the heat, which by now has been building for hours. Start conservatively.

    • Hold opening pace for 5 km
    • Take aid at every station

  2. 10.55 km–21.1 km

    Through downtown and the historic neighbourhoods

    Use downtown's landmarks as pacing checkpoints

    Passing the main plaza and historic streets gives fixed landmarks to check pace against, on a course with no terrain to do it for you.

    • Check pace at each landmark
    • Keep cooling and hydrating on schedule

  3. 21.1 km–31.65 km

    Managing accumulated heat

    Protect core temperature over splits

    By this point in a Caribbean afternoon, heat management matters more than any single kilometre split. Ease pace before form breaks down.

    • Use ice or cold sponges if offered
    • Reassess goal pace honestly

  4. 31.65 km–42.2 km

    To City Hall plaza

    Spend what an honest bike and honest heat management left you

    The finish at City Hall plaza in downtown Cozumel rewards a day paced to the heat, not against it.

    • Decide the finish honestly
    • Keep hydrating even in the closing kilometres

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2026 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
23.9–28.5°CDew point centred on 21.8°C
Wind and gusts
11.7 km/hGusts up to 45.0 km/hPrevailing direction NE
Rain likelihood
Up to 100%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-18.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2026.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2026 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a full distance that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard full distance distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Cozumel is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeFull-distance training plansTraining plans for the heat resilience this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan, feedback and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleHeat adaptation strategies for triathletesEssential preparation for Cozumel's Caribbean heat and humidity.ArticleFull-distance race strategy: calm execution beats chaosThe pacing discipline a flat, fast, three-lap bike course demands.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2026 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 18 Sept 2026.