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Race IntelligenceSanremo, Italy

Challenge Sanremo

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
4 October 2026
Swim
1.9 km
Bike
90 km
Run
21.1 km

Published route evidence. Final 2026 route pending. Checked 15 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Sanremo actually gives you

You swim from San Martino beach into Sanremo's sheltered harbour, then ride a genuinely hilly loop through ten municipalities, up the 17 km climb to Bajardo and back down the final stretch of the Milan-Sanremo cycling classic, before a flat coastal run past the Capo Nero tunnel. This is the hilliest bike in the Challenge Half queue. The question is whether you pace the climb like a climb or discover the answer on the run.

Show distances in

Swim

1.9 km

Point-to-point, Sea to Harbour

Layout
1, point-to-point
Setting
Spiaggia San Martino to the Portosole marina

A point-to-point swim into sheltered harbour water rewards steady sighting over raw open-water power.

Source: current course description

Bike

90 km

Hilly Coastal and Inland Roads With One Major Climb

Layout
1 loop
Setting
10 municipalities of the Italian Riviera, including the climb to Bajardo and the closing descent of the Milan-Sanremo cycling classic
Elevation
1463 m published profile difference

A genuine 17 km climb and a fast closing descent make this the most demanding bike in the Challenge Half queue; pacing the climb decides the day more than pure watts.

Source: current course description

Run

21.1 km

Flat Coastal Path With One Tunnel

Setting
the seafront cycle and pedestrian path, including the Capo Nero tunnel-museum
Elevation
160 m published profile difference

Low elevation and a single coastal path favour rhythm, but the bike's climbing cost still has to be paid somewhere.

Source: current course description
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, current course description; bike, current course description; run, current course description. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2026 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

Settle into the harbour

  1. 0–1900 m

    San Martino to the harbour

    Sight the breakwater, not the field

    A point-to-point swim along the breakwater into sheltered harbour water rewards a settled rhythm and clean sighting over fighting for position.

    • Settle by 300 m
    • Use the breakwater line to sight

Bike

Earn the descent, don't chase it

  1. 0 km–30 km

    Along the coast

    Bank nothing before the climbing starts

    The opening kilometres run along the Coastal Park before the first climbs at Terzorio, Pompeiana and Castellaro. Use them to settle position and fuel, not to bank speed you'll want later.

    • Start drinking before the terrain changes
    • Check effort before average speed

  2. 30 km–60 km

    The climb to Bajardo

    Ride the 17 km climb to a number, not a feeling

    This is the defining effort of the day. Cap power or heart rate deliberately rather than matching whoever is next to you, because this is the cost the run will collect later if you overspend it here.

    • Set a hard ceiling before the climb starts
    • Fuel on the climb, not just before it

    A climb raced too hard here is a run walked too early

  3. 60 km–90 km

    The Milan-Sanremo descent

    Recover on the descent, don't race it

    The fast closing descent along the famous final stretch of Milan-Sanremo is a chance to recover, not to attack. Use it to eat, drink and let the legs loosen before T2.

    • Treat the descent as recovery, not a second effort
    • Finish your nutrition before T2

Run

Collect what the climb left you

  1. 0 km–10.5 km

    Along the coastal path

    Find out what the climb left you

    The flat seafront path, including the Capo Nero tunnel, gives honest early feedback on how well you paced the bike. Run the pace you have, not the pace you planned before the climb.

    • Shorten your stride if the legs are heavy
    • Use the tunnel as a mental reset point

  2. 10.5 km–21.1 km

    The back half

    Race what the day has actually given you

    Only commit to a real push once you have honest evidence from the first half of the run that the legs can hold it.

    • Compare the back half to the front honestly
    • Change one thing at a time if you push

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2026 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
14.9–23.9°CDew point centred on 13.6°C
Wind and gusts
7.1 km/hGusts up to 43.2 km/hPrevailing direction SSW
Rain likelihood
Up to 80%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-15.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2026.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2026 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a 70.3 that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard 70.3 distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Sanremo is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeHalf-distance training plansTraining plans for the fitness and durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan, feedback and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleHow to pace a 70.3 so you can still runThe longer version of the swim-bike-run pacing logic behind this Race Card.ArticleBig gear done right: a guide to low-cadence strengthUseful preparation for a genuinely hilly bike course with one long sustained climb.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2026 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-15.