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Race IntelligenceCervia, Italy

IRONMAN 70.3 Emilia Romagna

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
20 September 2026
Swim
1.9 km
Bike
90 km
Run
21.1 km

Published route evidence. Final 2026 route pending. Checked 13 Sept 2026.

Official course routeThe real GPS route for each discipline with official GPX data available, drawn in one shared coordinate space.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Emilia Romagna actually gives you

You swim a calm, sheltered Adriatic loop off Cervia beach, ride one flat countryside loop past the Salt Pans with a single short climb, then run three flat laps through Cervia and Milano Marittima. This is one of the most forgiving courses in the rollout, which makes your own discipline the entire story.

Show distances in

Swim

1.9 km

Sheltered Sea Loop

Layout
1 loop
Setting
Adriatic Sea off Cervia beach

A sheltered Adriatic beach loop keeps sighting simple and the water calm.

Source: 2023 previous-edition route

Bike

90 km

Flat Countryside Roads With One Climb

Layout
1 loop
Setting
Romagna countryside past the Cervia Salt Pans

One flat loop through the Romagna countryside with a single climb gives you almost nothing to manage beyond your own pacing.

Source: 2023 previous-edition route

Run

21.1 km

Flat Seaside Town Path

Layout
3 loops
Setting
Cervia and Milano Marittima

Three flat laps through Cervia and Milano Marittima reward whoever paced the bike honestly.

Source: 2023 previous-edition route
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2023 previous-edition route; bike, 2023 previous-edition route; run, 2023 previous-edition route. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2026 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

Use the calm sea

  1. 0–300 m

    The start

    Settle into the sea

    The sheltered Cervia beach loop gives you calm water and simple sighting from the first stroke.

    • Seed honestly
    • Settle into rhythm

Bike

Stay on plan

  1. 0 km–45 km

    First half

    Hold your fuelling plan

    A flat, easy-feeling ride is exactly when planned nutrition gets skipped. Fuel on the clock.

    • Fuel on schedule
    • Watch the watts, not the speed

  2. 45 km–90 km

    Second half

    Finish what you started

    Complete your nutrition plan before three run laps that reward a paced bike.

    • Stay aero
    • Finish planned nutrition

Run

Repeat the lap

  1. 0 km–7 km

    First lap

    Start controlled

    Let the first lap through Cervia feel easy, not fast.

    • Easy first aid station
    • Check posture

  2. 14 km–21.1 km

    Final lap

    Use what you saved

    Only progress once the first two laps have held together.

    • Stay tall
    • Choose the last move late

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2026 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
16.2–26.7°CDew point centred on 15.5°C
Wind and gusts
9.1 km/hGusts up to 38.2 km/hPrevailing direction NW
Rain likelihood
Up to 65%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-13.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2026.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2026 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a 70.3 that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard 70.3 distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Emilia Romagna is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeHalf-distance training plansTraining plans for the durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleHow to pace a 70.3 so you can still runThe longer version of the pacing logic behind this Race Card.ArticleFix the first ten minutes off the bikeUseful when an easy bike still needs to become controlled running.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2026 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-13.