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Race IntelligenceCanberra, Australia

Challenge Canberra

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
22 November 2026
Swim
2 km
Bike
80 km
Run
18 km

Published route evidence. Final 2026 route pending. Checked 15 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Canberra actually gives you

You swim one loop in the protected waters off Black Mountain Peninsula, ride a redesigned 80 km course the organiser calls aero-friendly and smooth, then run Lake Burley Griffin's lakeside pathways to the line. Canberra's own Middle Distance is shorter than the standard half: 2 km swim, 80 km bike, 18 km run. The bike's marketing undersells its real terrain. Respect the published elevation, not the adjective.

Show distances in

Swim

2 km

Lake

Layout
1 loop
Setting
Black Mountain Peninsula, Lake Burley Griffin

Protected lake water off Black Mountain Peninsula gives a controlled, confidence-building start.

Source: current course description

Bike

80 km

Rolling Roads, Redesigned for Speed

Setting
the roads around Canberra
Elevation
945 m published profile difference

The organiser markets this as a smooth, aero-friendly course, but 945 m of published gain over 80 km means it rides genuinely rolling, not flat.

Source: current course description

Run

18 km

Lakeside Pathways

Setting
Lake Burley Griffin's foreshore pathways
Elevation
61 m published profile difference

Lakeside pathways and shorter total distance favour a confident finish once the bike's real terrain has been respected.

Source: current course description
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, current course description; bike, current course description; run, current course description. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2026 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

Settle into the protected water

  1. 0–2000 m

    One loop off Black Mountain Peninsula

    Use the protected water to start clean

    Protected water off the peninsula gives a controlled, confidence-building start. Settle into rhythm early and use the good sighting lines the foreshore offers.

    • Settle by 300 m
    • Sight off the foreshore landmarks

Bike

Respect the real terrain, not the marketing

  1. 0 km–40 km

    The first half

    Ride the real terrain, not the 'aero-friendly' billing

    This course is genuinely rolling despite being marketed as smooth and fast. Ride the rolling sections to a power or effort cap rather than assuming the marketing means you can push every rise.

    • Check effort before average speed
    • Cap effort on every rise

  2. 40 km–80 km

    The second half

    Hold the cap through to T2

    Keep respecting the terrain through the second half. Finish your nutrition and arrive at T2 with legs that respected the climbing, not just the marketing.

    • Hold the same effort cap throughout
    • Finish the bottle you planned

Run

Finish confident on the lakeside

  1. 0 km–9 km

    Onto the lakeside pathways

    Find your legs on Canberra's foreshore

    The lakeside pathways give a beautiful, confidence-building run route. Use the first half to convert bike legs into running legs before committing to a real push.

    • Shorten your stride out of T2
    • Take the early aid stations deliberately

  2. 9 km–18 km

    The final surge

    Make the final surge earn its name

    The organiser calls this a route for a final surge to the line. Earn that surge with honest evidence from the first half rather than assuming it by default.

    • Compare the second half to the first honestly
    • Keep the finish decision yours

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2026 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
10.0–25.4°CDew point centred on 10.2°C
Wind and gusts
9.4 km/hGusts up to 48.2 km/hPrevailing direction NNW
Rain likelihood
Up to 85%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-15.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2026.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2026 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a 70.3 that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard 70.3 distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Canberra is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeHalf-distance training plansTraining plans for the fitness and durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan, feedback and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleHow to pace a 70.3 so you can still runThe longer version of the swim-bike-run pacing logic behind this Race Card.ArticleBig gear done right: a guide to low-cadence strengthUseful preparation for a bike course that rides hillier than its own marketing suggests.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2026 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-15.