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Race IntelligencePeguera, Spain

Challenge Peguera-Mallorca

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
17 October 2026
Swim
1.9 km
Bike
90 km
Run
21.1 km

Published route evidence. Final 2026 route pending. Checked 15 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Peguera-Mallorca actually gives you

You swim two out-and-back legs off Torà Beach, ride two technical 45 km laps between Peguera's coast and the foothills of the Serra de Tramuntana, then run four laps linking three of the island's beaches. The bike is the defining leg: it rewards control on the technical terrain far more than it rewards bravado. Ride it well and the four-lap run becomes a formality, not a fight.

Show distances in

Swim

1.9 km

Sea, Double Out-and-back

Layout
Two 950 m out-and-back legs, beach crossing between them
Setting
Torà Beach, Peguera

A double out-and-back with a beach crossing between legs adds a brief reset partway through an otherwise simple sea swim.

Source: current course description

Bike

90 km

Technical Mixed Coast and Mountain Roads

Layout
2 laps of 45 km
Setting
the coastal area of Peguera and the foothills of the Serra de Tramuntana (a UNESCO World Heritage Site)
Elevation
962 m published profile difference

A technical, hilly two-lap course at the foot of the Tramuntana mountains rewards control on the technical sections more than raw power.

Source: current course description

Run

21.1 km

Boulevard and Maritime Boardwalk

Layout
4 loops
Setting
central Peguera, connecting Torà, Els Morts and La Romana beaches
Elevation
200 m published profile difference

Four flat laps past three beaches give constant feedback and constant temptation to chase the boulevard energy.

Source: current course description
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, current course description; bike, current course description; run, current course description. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2026 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

Use the beach crossing to reset

  1. 0–1900 m

    Two legs off Torà Beach

    Use the beach crossing as a genuine reset

    Two 950 m out-and-back legs with a sprint across the sand between them break the swim into two shorter, more manageable efforts. Use the crossing to check form, not to race it.

    • Settle early on each leg
    • Use the beach crossing to reset your breathing

Bike

Ride the technical sections for control

  1. 0 km–45 km

    Lap 1

    Learn the technical sections before you trust them

    The first lap through Peguera's coast and the Tramuntana foothills is your only chance to learn the technical terrain before repeating it. Ride for control, not for a first-lap split.

    • Brake early into technical sections you haven't seen
    • Hold planned power on the sections that let you

  2. 45 km–90 km

    Lap 2

    Apply what lap 1 taught you

    The second lap covers the same technical ground. Use what you learned to ride it with more confidence, without letting that confidence turn into unplanned speed.

    • Ride the technical sections you now know, faster but not harder
    • Start finishing your nutrition before the lap ends

Run

Let four laps work for you

  1. 0 km–5.3 km

    Lap 1

    Find your legs after a technical bike

    A technical bike can leave legs feeling different off the bike than a flat course would. Use the first lap past Torà Beach to check in honestly before committing to pace.

    • Shorten your stride out of T2
    • Take the early aid stations deliberately

  2. 5.3 km–15.8 km

    Laps 2 and 3

    Use three beaches as three checkpoints

    Torà, Els Morts and La Romana give you regular, distinct landmarks. Use each pass to check posture and fuelling rather than letting the boulevard energy pull your pace.

    • Assign a check to each beach
    • Keep fuelling even on the boulevard sections

  3. 15.8 km–21.1 km

    The last lap

    Finish where the race actually started

    The finish line sits where the beach meets the boulevard, the heart of Peguera. Save your real decision for this final lap, once you have three laps of honest evidence.

    • Look for a genuinely strong final lap before committing
    • Keep the finish decision yours

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2026 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
16.9–24.0°CDew point centred on 15.6°C
Wind and gusts
11.8 km/hGusts up to 45.7 km/hPrevailing direction E
Rain likelihood
Up to 75%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-15.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2026.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2026 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a 70.3 that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard 70.3 distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Peguera-Mallorca is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeHalf-distance training plansTraining plans for the fitness and durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan, feedback and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleHow to pace a 70.3 so you can still runThe longer version of the swim-bike-run pacing logic behind this Race Card.ArticleOpen water swimming tacticsUseful for the double out-and-back swim off Torà Beach.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2026 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-15.