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Race IntelligenceCairns, QLD, Australia

IRONMAN Cairns

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
13 June 2027
Swim
3.8 km
Bike
180 km
Run
42.2 km

Published route evidence. Final 2027 route pending. Checked 19 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Cairns actually gives you

You swim two laps close to shore at Palm Cove, ride two undulating, winding loops up the Captain Cook Highway toward Port Douglas past the scenic Rex Lookout, then continue point to point roughly 30 km south to Cairns CBD, then run four flat loops along the Cairns Esplanade past TriClub Village to the finish. Known as the Race in Paradise, this is the only IRONMAN where a world-heritage rainforest meets the Great Barrier Reef. The rolling, winding bike section toward Port Douglas, ridden twice, is the one real terrain test between two otherwise gentle disciplines.

Show distances in

Swim

3.8 km

Ocean, Two Laps, Close to Shore

Layout
2 laps
Setting
Palm Cove, start off Williams Esplanade

A two-lap swim pulled close to shore at Palm Cove, with extra sighting buoys added by the organiser, gives a controlled, low-drama start to a spectacular setting.

Source: 2027 current route

Bike

180 km

Rolling, Undulating, Point to Point With a Two-loop Northern Section

Layout
2 loops (Palm Cove to Port Douglas and back), then point to point south to Cairns
Setting
the Captain Cook Highway between Palm Cove and Port Douglas, past the Rex Lookout, then south to Cairns CBD

Two undulating, winding loops up the Captain Cook Highway toward Port Douglas, past the Rex Lookout, then a point-to-point run south to Cairns, make pacing the rollers twice the bike's real test.

Source: 2027 current route

Run

42.2 km

Flat, Four Loops Along the Esplanade

Layout
4 loops
Setting
the Cairns Esplanade, anticlockwise, past TriClub Village

A flat four-loop course along the Cairns Esplanade, with exceptional crowd support at TriClub Village, rewards whatever the rolling bike left in the legs.

Source: 2027 current route
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2027 current route; bike, 2027 current route; run, 2027 current route. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2027 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

A calm, close-to-shore start

  1. 0–3800 m

    Two laps at Palm Cove

    Settle into a controlled, close-to-shore swim

    Pulled closer to shore with extra sighting buoys, this course is built to be straightforward to navigate. Settle into rhythm rather than racing the calm conditions.

    • Settle by 400 m
    • Use the added buoys to hold a clean line

Bike

The rollers toward Port Douglas, twice

  1. 0 km–45 km

    First loop toward Port Douglas

    Set a ceiling before the Rex Lookout views distract you

    Heading north on the Captain Cook Highway, the undulating, winding terrain and the scenic Rex Lookout are both easy to enjoy at the expense of a planned effort. Set the number you intend to hold on this loop's second pass.

    • Cap power on every roller
    • Fuel on the flatter stretches near Palm Cove

  2. 45 km–90 km

    Northern turn and back to Palm Cove

    Finish loop one at the pace you'll repeat

    Past the Northern Turn at Beor Street with the crowd's music pumping, hold the same discipline you'll need for an identical second loop.

    • Stay on the fuelling schedule
    • Keep power consistent on the return leg

  3. 90 km–135 km

    Second loop, same rollers

    Match loop two to loop one exactly

    Repeating the same undulating terrain and the Rex Lookout climb, ride to the same power ceiling regardless of how good the view looks the second time.

    • Compare effort to loop one
    • Recheck power on every roller

  4. 135 km–180 km

    Point to point south to Cairns

    Finish the transfer south still owing the run nothing

    After the second loop, the course turns inland and heads south via Yorkeys Knob Road back onto the Captain Cook Highway into Cairns CBD. Hold your discipline through this closing stretch rather than easing off early.

    • Finish nutrition before T2
    • Stay smooth into the Fogarty Park dismount

Run

Four flat loops along the Esplanade

  1. 0 km–10.55 km

    First loop along the Esplanade

    Let the flat course feel easy on purpose

    The run passes TriClub Village and the new Cairns Esplanade developments anticlockwise. After a rolling bike, let the first loop feel deliberately conservative.

    • Shorten stride out of T2
    • Hold opening pace regardless of the crowd energy

  2. 10.55 km–21.1 km

    Loop two

    Use the repeat as an honest check

    Passing TriClub Village a second time gives a clear read on how loop one's pace is actually holding after two loops of rolling bike terrain.

    • Compare loop two to loop one
    • Take aid roughly every 2 km as provided

  3. 21.1 km–31.65 km

    Loop three

    Protect what a rolling bike left you

    This is where the cumulative cost of two undulating bike loops starts to show. Manage the effort you actually have.

    • Reassess goal pace honestly
    • Keep taking aid on schedule

  4. 31.65 km–42.2 km

    Final loop to the red and black carpet

    Spend what an honest bike left you

    The final loop finishes on the famous red and black carpet along the Esplanade. If both bike loops were paced evenly, this is where it pays off.

    • Decide the finish honestly
    • Save something for the finish carpet

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2027 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
18.9–25.3°CDew point centred on 18.1°C
Wind and gusts
11.4 km/hGusts up to 51.1 km/hPrevailing direction SSE
Rain likelihood
Up to 95%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-19.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2027.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2027 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a full distance that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard full distance distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Cairns is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeFull-distance training plansTraining plans for the durability this course's rolling section asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan, feedback and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleFull-distance race strategy: calm execution beats chaosThe pacing discipline a rolling, two-loop bike course demands.ArticleFix the first ten minutes off the bikeUseful before a four-loop run that starts right after two rolling bike loops.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2027 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 19 Sept 2026.