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Race IntelligencePort Macquarie, NSW, Australia

IRONMAN Australia

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
18 October 2026
Swim
3.8 km
Bike
180 km
Run
42.2 km

Published route evidence. Final 2026 route pending. Checked 18 Sept 2026.

Official course routeThe real GPS route for each discipline with official GPX data available, drawn in one shared coordinate space.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Australia actually gives you

You swim a single lap of the calm, protected Hastings River, including the iconic weir crossing at Westport Park, ride 180 km through rolling countryside near Telegraph Point and Pembrooke Road before two loops of Ocean Drive's exposed, sweeping coastline past Tacking Point Lighthouse and Lake Cathie, then run four flat loops through Port Macquarie's heart, past Town Beach and the breakwall, to the famous red carpet finish at Town Green. The bike's final test, the infamous Matthew Flinders Drive climb, arrives right before transition, and how you ride the two rolling loops before it decides how it goes.

Show distances in

Swim

3.8 km

River, Single Lap With a Weir Crossing

Layout
1 lap, out and back with two turnarounds
Setting
the Hastings River, starting and finishing at Westport Park

A calm, protected single-lap river swim with a genuinely unique weir crossing gives a controlled, low-technicality opening before the coastal terrain that follows.

Source: 2024 file, current course page

Bike

180 km

Rolling Countryside and Coastline, Two-part Loop Structure

Layout
A northern two-loop section, then a southern two-loop section
Setting
Telegraph Point and Pembrooke Road countryside, then Ocean Drive's coastline past Tacking Point Lighthouse and Lake Cathie

A northern two-loop section through rolling countryside, followed by a southern two-loop section along an exposed, sweeping coastline that ends on the infamous Matthew Flinders Drive climb, makes the final kilometres the bike's real test.

Source: 2024 file, current course page

Run

42.2 km

Flat, Four Loops Through Town

Layout
4 loops
Setting
Town Beach, the Town Green breakwall and Kooloonbung Creek, turning at Settlement Point Road

A flat four-loop course through the heart of Port Macquarie, past Town Beach and the breakwall, gives constant landmarks to check pace after a demanding bike.

Source: 2024 file, current course page
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2024 file, current course page; bike, 2024 file, current course page; run, 2024 file, current course page. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2026 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

A calm river, one famous weir

  1. 0–3800 m

    One lap with the weir crossing

    Settle into calm water before the coastal bike ahead

    The Hastings River is calm and protected, with a genuinely unique out-and-back weir crossing as the swim's defining feature. Settle in early and let the layout do the work.

    • Settle by 400 m
    • Use the weir crossing as a natural rhythm check

Bike

Save something for Matthew Flinders Drive

  1. 0 km–51 km

    First northern loop

    Set your ceiling through the rolling countryside

    Heading out through Telegraph Point and Pembrooke Road, the rolling hills here are the first real terrain of the day. This loop repeats, so ride it at a number you can hold twice.

    • Cap power on the rolling sections
    • Fuel early while the terrain is manageable

  2. 51 km–102 km

    Second northern loop

    Match the second loop to the first

    Passing The Big Oyster to start the second northern loop, hold the same discipline you set on the first. This is the last chance to bank effort before the southern coastal section.

    • Compare effort to loop one
    • Stay on the fuelling schedule

  3. 102 km–141 km

    First loop along Ocean Drive

    Respect the exposed coastline's rolling hills

    Ocean Drive brings sweeping ocean views, a loop down to Tacking Point Lighthouse and real rolling terrain along a genuinely exposed stretch. Ride it, don't just enjoy the view.

    • Ride the wind on power
    • Keep taking on nutrition through the scenery

  4. 141 km–180 km

    Second Ocean Drive loop, then Matthew Flinders Drive

    Hold your ceiling into the infamous climb

    The second Ocean Drive loop repeats the coastal rolling terrain before the course turns for home and the infamous Matthew Flinders Drive climb, right before T2. Whatever margin the first three sections left is spent here.

    • Keep the same power ceiling into the climb
    • Finish nutrition before T2

Run

Four flat loops through town

  1. 0 km–10.55 km

    Loop one past Town Beach

    Let the flat course feel easy on purpose

    The run passes the finish line early, then heads to Town Beach and back down the breakwall before turning at Kooloonbung Creek. Nothing here should feel hard yet.

    • Shorten stride out of T2
    • Hold opening pace through the breakwall crowd

  2. 10.55 km–21.1 km

    Loop two to Settlement Point Road

    Use the Settlement Point turnaround as an honest check

    The second loop repeats the same landmarks, including the turnaround beyond the 70.3 course's own turn point. Compare how it feels to loop one.

    • Compare loop two to loop one
    • Keep aid-station fuelling on schedule

  3. 21.1 km–31.65 km

    Loop three

    Protect what the bike's final climb left you

    This is where a hard-ridden Matthew Flinders Drive climb starts to show up in the legs. Manage the effort you actually have.

    • Reassess goal pace honestly
    • Keep taking aid on schedule

  4. 31.65 km–42.2 km

    Loop four to the red carpet

    Spend what three honest loops left you

    The final loop finishes on the famous red carpet at Town Green. If the bike respected the climb and the first three loops were even, this is where it pays off.

    • Decide the finish honestly
    • Save something for the red carpet

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2026 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
16.6–23.9°CDew point centred on 15.0°C
Wind and gusts
15.5 km/hGusts up to 53.6 km/hPrevailing direction NE
Rain likelihood
Up to 80%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-18.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2026.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2026 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a full distance that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard full distance distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Australia is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeFull-distance training plansTraining plans for the climbing durability this course's late bike test asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan, feedback and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleFull-distance race strategy: calm execution beats chaosThe pacing discipline a two-part, climb-finishing bike course demands.ArticleFix the first ten minutes off the bikeUseful before a four-loop run that starts right after the infamous Matthew Flinders Drive climb.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2026 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 18 Sept 2026.