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Race IntelligenceFlorianopolis, Brazil

IRONMAN Brazil

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
13 June 2027
Swim
3.8 km
Bike
180 km
Run
42.2 km

Published route evidence. Final 2027 route pending. Checked 19 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Brazil actually gives you

You swim in calm water at Jurere Internacional's Ammo Beach, ride two flat loops through the Florianopolis countryside, then run four flat loops past the crowd-packed Avenida dos Buzios, where local TriClubs set up their own support tents. The organiser's own course description is direct about what actually decides this race: calm water makes the swim fast, but strong wind on the otherwise flat bike and run makes the whole day 'extremely strategic'. Riding and running to a wind-aware plan, not the flat terrain's natural pace, is the real test here.

Show distances in

Swim

3.8 km

Ocean, Calm Water

Setting
Jurere Internacional (Ammo Beach), 1000 m from transition, exiting near P12

Calm water at Jurere Internacional's Ammo Beach makes for a genuinely fast swim, the organiser's own description of it, before wind becomes the day's real subject.

Source: 2027 current route

Bike

180 km

Flat, Wind-exposed, Two Loops

Layout
2 loops
Setting
the countryside around Florianopolis

A flat two-loop course through the countryside offers speed, but the organiser's own prose names strong wind as what actually makes this race 'extremely strategic'.

Source: 2027 current route

Run

42.2 km

Flat, Four Loops Past Avenida Dos Buzios

Layout
4 loops
Setting
the crowd-lined Avenida dos Buzios, where local TriClubs set up support tents

A flat four-loop run past the crowd-packed Avenida dos Buzios rewards whatever a wind-managed bike left in the legs.

Source: 2027 current route
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2027 current route; bike, 2027 current route; run, 2027 current route. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2027 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

Calm water, a genuinely fast swim

  1. 0–3800 m

    Calm water at Ammo Beach

    Use the calm water, don't just race it

    The organiser calls this swim genuinely fast thanks to calm water. Settle into a controlled rhythm and let the conditions do the work rather than adding unnecessary effort.

    • Settle by 400 m
    • Hold a controlled, repeatable effort

Bike

Flat, but the wind writes the real plan

  1. 0 km–45 km

    First loop into the wind

    Set a wind-aware power ceiling early

    The flat countryside course offers speed, but the organiser is explicit that wind is what actually makes this race strategic. Set a power number that accounts for wind, not the flat road alone.

    • Cap power on any exposed stretch
    • Fuel early while conditions allow it

  2. 45 km–90 km

    Closing the first loop

    Hold the ceiling through the wind, not just around it

    Whichever direction the wind is working against you on this loop, hold your power number rather than chasing a speed target the wind won't allow.

    • Ride the wind on power, not speed
    • Stay on the fuelling schedule

  3. 90 km–180 km

    Second loop

    Match loop two to loop one exactly

    The second loop repeats the same flat, wind-exposed terrain. Ride to the same power ceiling regardless of which way the wind has shifted.

    • Compare effort to loop one
    • Finish planned nutrition before T2

Run

Four loops through Floripa's warmest crowd

  1. 0 km–10.55 km

    First loop past Avenida dos Buzios

    Let the flat course feel easy on purpose

    Passing Avenida dos Buzios, where local TriClubs set up their own support tents, is one of the day's loudest moments. Let the first loop feel deliberately easy despite the crowd.

    • Shorten stride out of T2
    • Hold opening pace regardless of the noise

  2. 10.55 km–21.1 km

    Loop two

    Use the repeat as an honest check

    Passing the same crowd-lined stretch a second time gives a clear read on how loop one's pace is actually holding, especially if the wind has picked up.

    • Compare loop two to loop one
    • Keep fuelling on schedule

  3. 21.1 km–31.65 km

    Loop three

    Protect what a wind-managed bike left you

    This is where a bike ridden honestly against the wind, or not, starts to show up in the legs. Manage the effort you actually have.

    • Reassess goal pace honestly
    • Keep taking aid on schedule

  4. 31.65 km–42.2 km

    Final loop through Avenida dos Buzios

    Spend what an honest, wind-aware day left you

    The final loop finishes among Florianopolis's warmest crowd support. If the bike respected the wind and the first three loops were paced evenly, this is where it pays off.

    • Decide the finish honestly
    • Save something for the final loop's crowd

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2027 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
14.6–23.2°CDew point centred on 16.1°C
Wind and gusts
10.1 km/hGusts up to 39.6 km/hPrevailing direction NNW
Rain likelihood
Up to 65%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-19.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2027.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2027 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a full distance that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard full distance distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Brazil is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeFull-distance training plansTraining plans for the pacing discipline this course rewards.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan, feedback and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleFull-distance race strategy: calm execution beats chaosThe pacing discipline a wind-exposed, flat bike course demands.ArticleFix the first ten minutes off the bikeUseful before a four-loop run that starts right after a wind-tested bike.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2027 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 19 Sept 2026.