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Race IntelligenceCascais, Portugal

IRONMAN 70.3 Portugal-Cascais

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
17 October 2026
Swim
1.9 km
Bike
90 km
Run
21.1 km

Published route evidence. Final 2026 route pending. Checked 13 Sept 2026.

Official course routeThe real GPS route for each discipline with official GPX data available, drawn in one shared coordinate space.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Portugal-Cascais actually gives you

You swim a calm, protected loop in Cascais Bay, ride one exposed 90 km loop along the Guincho coast and through the Sintra-Cascais Natural Park with 771 m of published climbing, then run two coastal loops toward Cabo Raso. The wind, not the hills, decides how hard this day feels.

Show distances in

Swim

1.9 km

Protected Bay Loop

Layout
1 loop
Setting
Ribeira Beach, Cascais

A protected bay loop off Ribeira Beach gives calm water despite the exposed coastline around it.

Source: 2024 previous-edition route

Bike

90 km

Rolling Coastal Roads

Layout
1 loop
Setting
Guincho, Sintra-Cascais Natural Park and the Estoril circuit toward Lisbon
Elevation
771 m published profile difference

771 m of published climbing is spread across exposed coastal roads, so wind management matters as much as the climbing itself.

Source: 2024 previous-edition route

Run

21.1 km

Coastal Road

Layout
2 loops
Setting
Cascais and the Guincho road toward Cabo Raso
Elevation
127 m published profile difference

Two exposed coastal loops toward Cabo Raso can turn hard on a windy day, exactly as the organiser warns.

Source: 2024 previous-edition route
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2024 previous-edition route; bike, 2024 previous-edition route; run, 2024 previous-edition route. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2026 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

Use the bay

  1. 0–300 m

    The start

    Settle in the bay

    The protected bay gives calm water and clear sighting before the exposed bike.

    • Seed honestly
    • Settle into rhythm

Bike

Ride the wind, not the hills

  1. 0 km–45 km

    Guincho and the natural park

    Ride to a power cap in the wind

    The exposed Guincho road and Sintra-Cascais park roads are where a headwind can wreck an even effort. Cap power, not speed.

    • Ride by watts, not by speed
    • Fuel early

  2. 45 km–90 km

    Estoril and the return

    Finish the loop composed

    The Estoril circuit and the run back toward Cascais are where composure pays off on the two-loop run.

    • Stay aero
    • Finish planned nutrition

Run

Respect the coast road

  1. 0 km–10.5 km

    First loop

    Respect the coast road

    The organiser calls this course challenging on a windy day. Let the first loop confirm conditions before you commit to pace.

    • Easy first aid station
    • Check posture

  2. 10.5 km–21.1 km

    Second loop

    Use what the bike left you

    Only progress once the first loop has held together against the wind.

    • Stay tall
    • Choose the last move late

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2026 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
15.7–22.1°CDew point centred on 15.3°C
Wind and gusts
15.4 km/hGusts up to 58.7 km/hPrevailing direction SW
Rain likelihood
Up to 80%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-13.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2026.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2026 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a 70.3 that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard 70.3 distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Portugal-Cascais is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeHalf-distance training plansTraining plans for the durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleHow to pace a 70.3 so you can still runThe longer version of the pacing logic behind this Race Card.ArticleFix the first ten minutes off the bikeUseful when a windy, hilly bike needs to become controlled running.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2026 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-13.