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Race IntelligenceWilmington, United States

IRONMAN 70.3 North Carolina

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
17 October 2026
Swim
1.9 km
Bike
90 km
Run
21.1 km

Published route evidence. Final 2026 route pending. Checked 13 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What North Carolina actually gives you

You swim a fast, tide-assisted 1.2 miles point-to-point through a saltwater Intracoastal Waterway channel, ride a flat, fast 56 miles point-to-point from the beach through rural countryside, then run a shaded, two-loop 13.1-mile lollipop around Greenfield Lake and through historic downtown Wilmington to the Battleship North Carolina finish. Fast conditions everywhere make discipline the actual variable.

Show distances in

Swim

1.9 km

Point-to-point Tidal Channel Swim

Layout
1 loop, point-to-point, rolling start
Setting
the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway channel, Wrightsville Beach

A point-to-point saltwater channel swim with an incoming tide gives a genuine current assist, not open ocean conditions.

Source: 2026 current route

Bike

90 km

Flat, Fast Point-to-point Roads

Layout
1 loop, point-to-point
Setting
rural countryside between Wrightsville Beach and Wilmington

A flat, fast point-to-point route from beach to countryside rewards holding your own number rather than chasing the course's reputation for speed.

Source: 2026 current route

Run

21.1 km

Two-loop Lollipop, Road and Boardwalk

Layout
2 loops
Setting
historic downtown Wilmington and Greenfield Lake

Two lollipop loops around shaded Greenfield Lake and through historic Wilmington still ask something of legs that banked time earlier in the day.

Source: 2026 current route
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2026 current route; bike, 2026 current route; run, 2026 current route. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2026 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

Use the tide

  1. 0–300 m

    The start

    Settle into the current

    An incoming tide helps everyone in the channel, so settle into your own rhythm rather than racing the rolling start.

    • Seed honestly
    • Settle into rhythm

Bike

Ride the number, not the reputation

  1. 0 km–45 km

    Beach to countryside

    Ride the number, not the course's reputation

    A flat, fast point-to-point course invites riding above plan from the first mile. Hold your target watts.

    • Watch the watts, not the speed
    • Fuel early

  2. 45 km–90 km

    Crossing to Wilmington

    Protect the run

    Finish your nutrition before crossing the Cape Fear River into town. Two lollipop run loops will expose anything spent early.

    • Stay aero
    • Finish planned nutrition

Run

Use the shade across two loops

  1. 0 km–10.5 km

    First loop, Greenfield Lake

    Start controlled

    Let the first shaded loop around Greenfield Lake feel easy, not fast.

    • Easy first aid station
    • Check posture

  2. 10.5 km–21.1 km

    Second loop to the battleship

    Use what you saved

    Only progress once the first loop has held together, saving something for the finish across from the USS North Carolina.

    • Stay tall
    • Choose the last move late

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2026 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
11.9–24.9°CDew point centred on 13.4°C
Wind and gusts
12.1 km/hGusts up to 39.2 km/hPrevailing direction NNW
Rain likelihood
Up to 55%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-13.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2026.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2026 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a 70.3 that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard 70.3 distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If North Carolina is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeHalf-distance training plansTraining plans for the durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleHow to pace a 70.3 so you can still runThe longer version of the pacing logic behind this Race Card.ArticleFix the first ten minutes off the bikeUseful when a fast bike still needs to become controlled running.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2026 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-13.