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Race IntelligenceKraichgau, Germany

IRONMAN 70.3 Kraichgau

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
23 May 2027
Swim
1.9 km
Bike
90 km
Run
21.1 km

Published route evidence. Final 2027 route pending. Checked 13 Sept 2026.

Official course routeThe real GPS route for each discipline with official GPX data available, drawn in one shared coordinate space.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Kraichgau actually gives you

You start with a one-loop Hardtsee swim, then ride a single hilly loop through the Land of 1,000 Hills before a flat three-loop run through Bad Schönborn. The bike determines whether the flat run feels available.

Show distances in

Swim

1.9 km

Lake / Calm Water

Layout
1 loop
Setting
Hardtsee, Ubstadt-Weiher

A calm lake swim makes pacing rather than water movement the early task.

Source: 2026 previous-edition route

Bike

90 km

Hilly Countryside

Layout
1 loop
Setting
Kraichgau forests, vineyards and orchards

The route's repeated hills and fast straights reward an even effort and patient fuelling.

Source: 2026 previous-edition route

Run

21.1 km

Flat Park and Town Streets

Layout
3 loops
Setting
Bad Schönborn and Kurpark

A flat three-loop run rewards the athlete who preserves legs over the bike's repeated climbs.

Source: 2026 previous-edition route
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2026 previous-edition route; bike, 2026 previous-edition route; run, 2026 previous-edition route. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2027 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

Settle in the lake

  1. 0–300 m

    The start

    Settle before you race

    Use the calm lake and one-loop format to find rhythm before committing to pace.

    • Seed honestly
    • Settle into rhythm

Bike

Ride the hills by effort

  1. 0 km–45 km

    First half

    Treat every hill as part of the same day

    The Land of 1,000 Hills is defined by repeated climbing and fast straights. Keep effort even and fuel before you need it.

    • Shift early
    • Drink before the climbs

  2. 45 km–90 km

    Bring the run home

    Use speed to recover

    Fast straights do not require a harder effort. Finish planned nutrition and arrive in Bad Schönborn ready to run.

    • Let cadence rise
    • Finish the bottle you planned

Run

Use the flat loops

  1. 0 km–7 km

    First loop

    Let the flat run settle you

    Use the first loop through Bad Schönborn to reset after the hills.

    • Control the first aid station
    • Keep the first loop easy

  2. 7 km–16 km

    Second loop

    Use the repeats as checks

    Three loops give you repeatable markers for fuelling and form.

    • Check posture
    • Fuel early

  3. 16 km–21.1 km

    Final loop

    Earn the last move

    Only decide to race when the bike has left you enough control.

    • Change cadence before pace
    • Look for three good kilometres

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2027 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
9.8–20.6°CDew point centred on 8.7°C
Wind and gusts
10.6 km/hGusts up to 43.6 km/hPrevailing direction WNW
Rain likelihood
Up to 95%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-13.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2027.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2027 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a 70.3 that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard 70.3 distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Kraichgau is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeHalf-distance training plansTraining plans for the durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleHow to pace a 70.3 so you can still runThe longer version of the pacing logic behind this Race Card.ArticleFix the first ten minutes off the bikeUseful when hilly bike legs need to become controlled running.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2027 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-13.