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Race IntelligenceAix en Provence, France

IRONMAN 70.3 Aix-en-Provence

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
23 May 2027
Swim
1.9 km
Bike
90 km
Run
21.1 km

Published route evidence. Final 2027 route pending. Checked 13 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Aix-en-Provence actually gives you

You start with a rectangular lake swim at Lac de Peyrolles, then ride 90 km back towards Aix-en-Provence through flat and hilly terrain around Mont Sainte-Victoire. The three-loop run moves through city parks and past La Rotonde before finishing on Cours Mirabeau. The bike rewards patience when the roads turn technical.

Show distances in

Swim

1.9 km

Lake / Calm Water

Layout
1 loop, rectangle
Setting
Lac de Peyrolles, 20 km from Aix-en-Provence

A rectangular lake swim and rolling start make pacing discipline more important than water movement.

Source: 2026 course description

Bike

90 km

Flat and Hilly Provincial Roads

Setting
From Lac de Peyrolles to Aix-en-Provence via Mont Sainte-Victoire

The official description identifies both flat and hilly sections plus technical roads around Mont Sainte-Victoire. Pace needs to stay even when speed cannot.

Source: 2026 course description

Run

21.1 km

City Streets and Parks

Layout
3 loops
Setting
Aix-en-Provence parks, La Rotonde fountain and Cours Mirabeau

A three-loop city run lets you use repeated landmarks and aid stations to check pacing and fuelling.

Source: 2026 course description
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2026 course description; bike, 2026 course description; run, 2026 course description. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2027 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

Settle into the rectangle

  1. 0–300 m

    The start

    Use the rolling start to settle

    Six athletes start every seven seconds. Use that space to find your own rhythm around the rectangular course before committing to pace.

    • Seed honestly
    • Settle before you commit to pace

Bike

Ride the technical roads by effort

  1. 0 km–21 km

    First aid station

    Start fuelling before the course asks for it

    The first bike aid station is at 21 km. Treat the opening kilometres as a chance to settle effort and start drinking, not to chase speed from fresh legs.

    • Drink early
    • Check effort before speed

  2. 21 km–67 km

    Towards Col de Cengle

    Let the hills and technical roads set the speed

    IRONMAN describes a mix of flat and hilly terrain with technical roads around Mont Sainte-Victoire. Keep the work rate steady when the road changes, then use the easier sections to recover and fuel.

    • Brake early, accelerate smoothly
    • Ride climbs by effort, not pride

    A small speed loss is cheaper than repeated hard accelerations

  3. 67 km–90 km

    Back to Aix

    Protect the run from the final kilometres

    The intermediate bike cutoff sits at Col de Cengle at 67 km. From there, finish the nutrition you planned and arrive at T2 with enough control left to run three loops well.

    • Finish the bottle you planned
    • Let cadence rise before T2

Run

Use the city loops

  1. 0 km–7 km

    First loop

    Let the city settle your legs

    The run passes through Aix's parks and around La Rotonde. Use the first loop to turn bike legs into running legs rather than treating the finish atmosphere as a reason to start hard.

    • Take the first aid station deliberately
    • Keep the first loop controlled

  2. 7 km–14 km

    Second loop

    Make the repeats work for you

    Three loops give you the same landmarks and aid stations again. Use them as a consistent check for posture, fuelling and effort.

    • Assign a check to each pass
    • Fuel before you feel empty

  3. 14 km–21.1 km

    Final loop

    Earn the run down Cours Mirabeau

    The intermediate run cutoff is at 14 km. Only after that point should you decide whether the day has given you permission to race the finish.

    • Look for three good kilometres
    • Change cadence before pace

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2027 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
11.9–25.3°CDew point centred on 10.3°C
Wind and gusts
9.9 km/hGusts up to 44.3 km/hPrevailing direction NW
Rain likelihood
Up to 85%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-13.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2027.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2027 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a 70.3 that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard 70.3 distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Aix-en-Provence is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeHalf-distance training plansTraining plans for the fitness and durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan, feedback and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleHow to pace a 70.3 so you can still runThe longer version of the swim-bike-run pacing logic behind this Race Card.ArticleFix the first ten minutes off the bikeUseful when a technical bike leg needs to turn into a controlled first run loop.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2027 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-13.