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Race IntelligenceLittle Elm, United States

IRONMAN 70.3 Dallas-Little Elm

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
14 March 2027
Swim
1.9 km
Bike
90 km
Run
21.1 km

Published route evidence. Final 2027 route pending. Checked 14 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Dallas-Little Elm actually gives you

You start with a one-loop swim in Lewisville Lake from Little Elm Beach, ride fast and gently rolling roads through North Texas countryside, then run three flat loops on the Little Elm nature trail system. The course rewards an even bike and a patient run.

Show distances in

Swim

1.9 km

Lake Swim

Layout
1 loop
Setting
Lewisville Lake, start and finish at Little Elm Beach

A one-loop lake swim starts and finishes at Little Elm Beach. Give yourself space early, then settle into your own rhythm.

Source: 2027 current route

Bike

90 km

Fast, Gently Rolling Roads

Setting
North Texas countryside north of Little Elm
Elevation
427 m published profile difference

The fast roads still roll for about 1,400 feet of published climbing. Keep the power steady over each rise rather than chasing speed on the open roads.

Source: 2027 current route

Run

21.1 km

Flat Hard-packed Crushed-gravel Trail

Layout
3 loops
Setting
Little Elm nature trail system and residential areas

Three flat loops on hard-packed trail make pacing and cooling choices repeatable. Treat every lap as a fresh check on effort and fueling.

Source: 2027 current route
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2027 current route; bike, 2027 current route; run, 2027 current route. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2027 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

Settle into the lake

  1. 0–300 m

    The start

    Find clear water

    The one-loop lake swim starts and finishes at Little Elm Beach. Start where you can settle quickly into your own rhythm.

    • Self-seed honestly
    • Lengthen the stroke

Bike

Ride the rollers evenly

  1. 0 km–45 km

    North through open roads

    Keep the power steady

    The course heads north through North Texas countryside on fast, gently rolling roads. Let the speed come from steady power, not surges over each rise.

    • Ride the target watts
    • Fuel early

  2. 45 km–90 km

    Back to Little Elm

    Protect the third sport

    Finish the bike with enough control to run all three loops. Complete your planned nutrition before T2.

    • Stay aero when it is useful
    • Finish planned nutrition

Run

Build the three loops

  1. 0 km–7 km

    First loop

    Make the first lap patient

    The flat hard-packed trail can make an early pace feel easier than it is. Use the first loop to lock in a sustainable effort.

    • Settle before chasing pace
    • Use each aid station

  2. 7 km–14 km

    Second loop

    Repeat the basics

    Use the repeatable course to check posture, fluids and effort. Do not make the second lap a test of speed.

    • Stay tall
    • Keep fueling

  3. 14 km–21.1 km

    Third loop to the finish

    Race what you saved

    Only progress when the first two loops have held together. The final lap is where steady bike pacing pays back.

    • Choose the last move late
    • Keep the cadence up

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2027 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
6.3–21.3°CDew point centred on 7.2°C
Wind and gusts
17.0 km/hGusts up to 45.7 km/hPrevailing direction S
Rain likelihood
Up to 75%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-14.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2027.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2027 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a 70.3 that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard 70.3 distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Dallas-Little Elm is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeHalf-distance training plansTraining plans for the durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleHow to pace a 70.3 so you can still runThe longer version of the pacing logic behind this Race Card.ArticleFix the first ten minutes off the bikeUseful when a steady bike still needs to become controlled running.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2027 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-14.