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Race IntelligenceCampeche, Mexico

IRONMAN 70.3 Campeche

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
8 November 2026
Swim
1.9 km
Bike
90 km
Run
21.1 km

Published route evidence. Final 2026 route pending. Checked 13 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Campeche actually gives you

You swim a rolling-start 1.2 miles at Bonita Beach in the Gulf of Mexico, ride two flat, out-and-back 56-mile loops along Malecon Avenue and the Merida Highway, then run three flat 13.1-mile loops past Campeche's Marine Fountains and through the historic Walled City to the Sea Gate finish. Flat terrain everywhere makes heat management the real skill being tested.

Show distances in

Swim

1.9 km

Ocean Swim, Rolling Start

Layout
1 loop, rolling start
Setting
Bonita Beach, Gulf of Mexico

A rolling-start ocean swim at Bonita Beach lets you self-seed and settle before the flat roads ahead.

Source: 2026 current route

Bike

90 km

Flat Out-and-back Coastal Roads

Layout
2 loops
Setting
Malecon Avenue and the Merida Highway

Two flat, out-and-back loops along Malecon Avenue give no terrain excuse to ride above plan.

Source: 2026 current route

Run

21.1 km

Flat Coastal and Downtown Loops

Layout
3 loops
Setting
Campeche's Marine Fountains, Malecon Avenue and the historic Walled City

Three flat loops past the Marine Fountains and through the UNESCO Walled City still expose a bike that was raced rather than paced, especially in Gulf coast heat.

Source: 2026 current route
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2026 current route; bike, 2026 current route; run, 2026 current route. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2026 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

Self-seed and settle

  1. 0–300 m

    The start

    Self-seed honestly

    A rolling start at Bonita Beach rewards realistic self-seeding over fighting for position.

    • Self-seed honestly
    • Settle into rhythm

Bike

Ride the number, not the flat road

  1. 0 km–45 km

    First loop

    Ride the number, not the flat road

    A flat, out-and-back Malecon course invites riding above plan simply because nothing forces you to slow down. Hold your target watts.

    • Watch the watts, not the speed
    • Fuel early in the heat

  2. 45 km–90 km

    Second loop

    Protect the run

    Finish your nutrition before T2. Three flat run loops in Gulf coast heat will expose anything spent proving the bike was easy.

    • Stay on the fuelling and fluid plan
    • Hold effort, not just speed

Run

Manage the heat across three loops

  1. 0 km–7 km

    First loop

    Start controlled in the heat

    Let the first loop past the Marine Fountains feel easy, not fast, and take every aid station.

    • Take every aid station
    • Check effort against the heat, not the clock

  2. 7 km–14 km

    Second loop

    Hold what you've built

    The Walled City's flat streets give no cover from the heat. Keep the plan through the second loop.

    • Stay on the fuelling plan
    • Cool at every opportunity

  3. 14 km–21.1 km

    Third loop to the Sea Gate

    Use what the heat plan saved

    Only progress once the first two loops have held together.

    • Stay tall
    • Choose the last move late

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2026 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
22.4–30.4°CDew point centred on 22.0°C
Wind and gusts
10.5 km/hGusts up to 39.6 km/hPrevailing direction NE
Rain likelihood
Up to 95%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-13.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2026.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2026 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a 70.3 that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard 70.3 distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Campeche is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeHalf-distance training plansTraining plans for the durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleHow to pace a 70.3 so you can still runThe longer version of the pacing logic behind this Race Card.ArticleHeat adaptation strategies for triathletesUseful preparation for Campeche's Gulf coast heat and humidity.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2026 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-13.