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Race IntelligenceXiamen, China

Challenge Xiamen

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
7 November 2026
Swim
1.9 km
Bike
90 km
Run
21.1 km

Published route evidence. Final 2026 route pending. Checked 15 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Xiamen actually gives you

You swim two loops in sheltered ocean water off Meifeng Sports Park, ride three laps along Xiamen's scenic coastal track, then run four laps on a purpose-built coastal path. The coastline is genuinely beautiful and genuinely repetitive. The job across three bike laps and four run laps is the same: hold one honest number, not three or four different ones.

Show distances in

Swim

1.9 km

Sheltered Ocean Waters

Layout
2 loops
Setting
Meifeng Sports Park beach

Sheltered ocean water off a sports-park beach keeps the two-loop swim controlled.

Source: current course description

Bike

90 km

Coastal Roads

Layout
3 loops
Setting
Xiamen's scenic coastal track
Elevation
183 m published profile difference

A three-lap coastal course rewards a single, sustainable effort over an aggressive early lap.

Source: current course description

Run

21.1 km

Purpose-built Coastal Path

Layout
4 loops
Setting
a dedicated coastal running path
Elevation
48 m published profile difference

A purpose-built coastal path across four laps favours rhythm and consistent fuelling.

Source: current course description
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, current course description; bike, current course description; run, current course description. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2026 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

Two loops, one rhythm

  1. 0–1900 m

    Two loops off Meifeng

    Use the sheltered water to settle early

    Sheltered ocean water off the sports park gives you a controlled swim. Settle into rhythm on loop 1 and carry it into loop 2.

    • Settle by 300 m
    • Carry the same rhythm into loop 2

Bike

Three laps, one number

  1. 0 km–30 km

    Lap 1

    Set the number you intend to hold for three laps

    The coastal track will look and feel great on a fresh lap 1. Set your planned effort here and treat it as the standard for laps 2 and 3.

    • Check effort before average speed
    • Start fuelling early

  2. 30 km–90 km

    Laps 2 and 3

    Hold lap 1's number through the coastline's repeat views

    The same coastal views on laps 2 and 3 shouldn't buy a different effort than lap 1 set.

    • Compare each lap's effort to lap 1
    • Finish your nutrition before T2

Run

Four laps, one discipline

  1. 0 km–10.55 km

    Laps 1 and 2

    Find sustainable pace on the coastal path

    The purpose-built coastal path gives consistent footing across all four laps. Use the first two to find a pace you can actually hold, not test a fast one.

    • Shorten your stride out of T2
    • Take every aid station on every lap

  2. 10.55 km–21.1 km

    Laps 3 and 4

    Decide deliberately, once you have three laps of evidence

    Use the first two laps as honest evidence before deciding whether laps 3 and 4 are where you push.

    • Compare the back half to the front honestly
    • Keep the finish decision yours

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2026 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
18.8–29.9°CDew point centred on 14.7°C
Wind and gusts
12.5 km/hGusts up to 41.8 km/hPrevailing direction NNE
Rain likelihood
Up to 55%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-15.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2026.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2026 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a 70.3 that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard 70.3 distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Xiamen is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeHalf-distance training plansTraining plans for the fitness and durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan, feedback and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleHow to pace a 70.3 so you can still runThe longer version of the swim-bike-run pacing logic behind this Race Card.ArticleOpen water swimming tacticsUseful for the two-loop ocean swim off Meifeng Sports Park.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2026 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-15.