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Race IntelligenceShanghai, China

Challenge Shanghai

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
24 October 2026
Swim
1.9 km
Bike
90 km
Run
21.1 km

Published route evidence. Final 2026 route pending. Checked 15 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Shanghai actually gives you

You swim two calm loops through Haiwan National Forest Park's sheltered waterways, ride four flat laps along the northern coastline of Hangzhou Bay, then run four laps through the same forest's shaded trails. Every discipline here repeats itself, which means every discipline gives you a genuine choice each lap: hold the plan, or let familiarity erode it.

Show distances in

Swim

1.9 km

Sheltered Forest-park Waterways

Layout
2 loops
Setting
Haiwan National Forest Park, on the north bank of Hangzhou Bay

Sheltered forest-park waterways keep the swim calm and predictable across both loops.

Source: current course description

Bike

90 km

Flat Coastal Roads

Layout
4 loops
Setting
the northern coastline of Hangzhou Bay
Elevation
56 m published profile difference

A flat coastline course split into four laps rewards consistent effort over four separate efforts.

Source: current course description

Run

21.1 km

Flat Forest Trails

Layout
4 loops
Setting
Haiwan National Forest Park
Elevation
8 m published profile difference

Low elevation and shaded forest trails favour rhythm across four laps more than raw speed.

Source: current course description
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, current course description; bike, current course description; run, current course description. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2026 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

Two calm loops, one rhythm

  1. 0–1900 m

    Two loops through the forest park

    Let the sheltered water set a calm rhythm

    Two loops through calm, sheltered waterways give you a predictable swim. Use the repetition to lock in rhythm rather than treating each loop as a fresh effort.

    • Settle by 300 m
    • Carry the same rhythm into loop 2

Bike

Four laps, one number

  1. 0 km–45 km

    Laps 1 and 2

    Set the number you intend to hold for all four laps

    The flat Hangzhou Bay coastline gives you no terrain excuse to vary effort lap to lap. Set your planned power or effort on lap 1 and treat it as the standard for the rest.

    • Check effort before average speed
    • Start fuelling early

  2. 45 km–90 km

    Laps 3 and 4

    Hold lap 1's number, not lap 1's excitement

    By laps 3 and 4, familiarity with the course can quietly erode discipline. Hold the same number you set at the start.

    • Compare each lap's effort to lap 1
    • Finish your nutrition before T2

Run

Four laps, one discipline

  1. 0 km–10.55 km

    Laps 1 and 2

    Find your legs, then hold what you find

    The shaded forest trails give consistent footing and consistent feedback. Use the first two laps to find a sustainable pace, not to test a fast one.

    • Shorten your stride out of T2
    • Take every aid station on every lap

  2. 10.55 km–21.1 km

    Laps 3 and 4

    Decide deliberately on the last lap, not the first

    Use laps 1 and 2 as honest evidence before deciding whether laps 3 and 4 are where you push.

    • Compare the back half to the front honestly
    • Keep the finish decision yours

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2026 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
15.1–23.2°CDew point centred on 12.1°C
Wind and gusts
13.8 km/hGusts up to 42.1 km/hPrevailing direction NNE
Rain likelihood
Up to 60%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-15.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2026.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2026 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a 70.3 that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard 70.3 distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Shanghai is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeHalf-distance training plansTraining plans for the fitness and durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan, feedback and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleHow to pace a 70.3 so you can still runThe longer version of the swim-bike-run pacing logic behind this Race Card.ArticleMarginal gains in triathlon: a costly mythUseful perspective on holding a planned effort across repeated laps rather than chasing small edges.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2026 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-15.