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Race IntelligenceQuébec City, Canada

Challenge Québec

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
25 July 2027
Swim
1.9 km
Bike
90 km
Run
21.1 km

Published route evidence. Final 2027 route pending. Checked 15 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Québec actually gives you

You swim one calm loop in Bassin Louise, surrounded by yachts in the heart of Old Québec, then ride an out-and-back highway along the St Lawrence River, closed to traffic for the day, before a flat run through more than 400 years of history in a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The terrain will not slow you down here. The wind on the river highway, especially on the way back, is the whole bike story.

Show distances in

Swim

1.9 km

Harbour Basin

Layout
1 loop
Setting
Bassin Louise, Vieux-Québec

A sheltered harbour basin removes most open-water risk, leaving a straightforward sighting job.

Source: current course description

Bike

90 km

Out-and-back Highway, Closed for the Event

Layout
multi-lap, out-and-back
Setting
along the St Lawrence River, past views of Île d'Orléans and Québec City
Elevation
126 m published profile difference

Low elevation removes climbing cost, but an out-and-back highway along the open St Lawrence River makes wind direction the entire variable, especially on the return leg.

Source: current course description

Run

21.1 km

Flat Historic City and Riverside

Setting
Vieux-Québec (a UNESCO World Heritage Site) and along the Rivière Saint-Charles
Elevation
28 m published profile difference

Low elevation and a flat, historic route favour rhythm, and a genuinely unique UNESCO-site setting is an easy place to get distracted.

Source: current course description
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, current course description; bike, current course description; run, current course description. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2027 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

Settle into the basin

  1. 0–1900 m

    One loop of Bassin Louise

    Use the sheltered basin to settle early

    A calm harbour basin surrounded by yachts gives you a straightforward swim. Settle into rhythm early rather than fighting the field for position you don't need.

    • Settle by 300 m
    • Sight off fixed landmarks around the basin

Bike

Don't bank the outbound tailwind

  1. 0 km–45 km

    The outbound leg

    Ride the effort, not whatever the wind gives you

    The out-and-back highway along the St Lawrence River can hand you a fast-feeling outbound leg if the wind is behind you. Ride to planned power or effort regardless.

    • Check effort before average speed
    • Start fuelling early on the exposed highway

    A fast outbound split paid for by wind is a debt, not a gift

  2. 45 km–90 km

    The return leg

    Collect what the outbound leg may have cost you

    If the outbound leg had a tailwind, the return is where you find out. Hold the same effort and let the speed do whatever it does.

    • Ride the same number you rode outbound
    • Finish your nutrition before T2

Run

Run four centuries of history at your own pace

  1. 0 km–10.55 km

    Through Vieux-Québec

    Let the history be scenery, not pacing

    The run's opening kilometres pass through a genuinely remarkable UNESCO World Heritage setting. Use them to find running legs, not to get swept up in the surroundings.

    • Shorten your stride out of T2
    • Take the early aid stations deliberately

  2. 10.55 km–21.1 km

    Along the Rivière Saint-Charles and home

    Decide deliberately, once you've earned it

    The route along the Rivière Saint-Charles gives you clear, honest feedback on how the day has gone before the finish back near Bassin Louise. Use that evidence before committing to a push.

    • Compare the second half to the first honestly
    • Keep the finish decision yours

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2027 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
16.4–26.1°CDew point centred on 16.4°C
Wind and gusts
10.0 km/hGusts up to 40.3 km/hPrevailing direction WSW
Rain likelihood
Up to 95%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-15.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2027.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2027 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a 70.3 that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard 70.3 distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Québec is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeHalf-distance training plansTraining plans for the fitness and durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan, feedback and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleHow to pace a 70.3 so you can still runThe longer version of the swim-bike-run pacing logic behind this Race Card.ArticleOpen water swimming tacticsUseful for settling into the sheltered Bassin Louise swim.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2027 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-15.