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Race IntelligenceFlorianópolis, Brazil

Challenge Florianópolis

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
29 November 2026
Swim
1.9 km
Bike
90 km
Run
21.1 km

Published route evidence. Final 2026 route pending. Checked 15 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Florianópolis (Challenge) actually gives you

You swim one loop off Florianópolis's coastline, ride two 45 km laps the organiser calls fast and flat, then run three coastal laps to the finish. The bike's marketing undersells its real terrain: 1,151 m of published climbing across two laps is genuinely rolling, not flat. Respect the published number, not the adjective, and the three-lap run becomes a matter of discipline rather than survival.

Show distances in

Swim

1.9 km

Sea

Layout
1 loop
Setting
Florianópolis's coastline (no specific beach published)

A single-loop sea swim off one of Brazil's best-known coastlines is the most straightforward part of the day.

Source: current course description

Bike

90 km

Rolling Coastal Roads

Layout
2 loops of 45 km
Setting
the coastline of Florianópolis (the 'Magic Island')
Elevation
1151 m published profile difference

The organiser markets this as fast and flat, but 1,151 m of published gain over two 45 km laps means it rides genuinely rolling.

Source: current course description

Run

21.1 km

Coastal

Layout
3 loops
Setting
Florianópolis's coastline
Elevation
117 m published profile difference

Three coastal laps reward pacing discipline sustained across repetition more than raw speed.

Source: current course description
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, current course description; bike, current course description; run, current course description. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2026 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

One calm loop off the coast

  1. 0–1900 m

    One loop off the coast

    Settle into one of Brazil's best-known coastlines

    A single sea loop off Florianópolis's coastline gives you a straightforward swim. Settle into rhythm early and sight off fixed coastal landmarks.

    • Settle by 300 m
    • Sight off fixed landmarks

Bike

Respect the real terrain, not the marketing

  1. 0 km–45 km

    Lap 1

    Ride the real terrain, not the 'fast, flat' billing

    This course is genuinely rolling despite being marketed as fast and flat. Ride to a power or effort cap on lap 1 rather than assuming the marketing means an easy ride.

    • Check effort before average speed
    • Cap effort on every rise

  2. 45 km–90 km

    Lap 2

    Hold the same cap on lap 2

    Lap 2 repeats the same rolling terrain. Hold the same effort cap you set on lap 1 and finish your nutrition before T2.

    • Hold the same effort cap as lap 1
    • Finish the bottle you planned

Run

Hold three laps to one standard

  1. 0 km–7 km

    Lap 1

    Find your legs on the coast

    The first of three coastal laps gives honest early feedback on how well the bike's real terrain was respected. Run the pace you have.

    • Shorten your stride out of T2
    • Take the early aid stations deliberately

  2. 7 km–14 km

    Lap 2

    Hold the standard, not just the position

    Use the second lap to hold the same standard you set on lap 1, rather than letting fatigue quietly lower the bar.

    • Compare lap 2 to lap 1 honestly
    • Keep fuelling even if lap 1 felt fine

  3. 14 km–21.1 km

    Lap 3

    Decide deliberately on the final lap

    Use two laps of honest evidence before deciding whether the final lap is where you push.

    • Look for genuine strength before committing
    • Keep the finish decision yours

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2026 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
19.5–26.7°CDew point centred on 19.0°C
Wind and gusts
12.4 km/hGusts up to 45.0 km/hPrevailing direction NE
Rain likelihood
Up to 100%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-15.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2026.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2026 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a 70.3 that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard 70.3 distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Florianópolis (Challenge) is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeHalf-distance training plansTraining plans for the fitness and durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan, feedback and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleHow to pace a 70.3 so you can still runThe longer version of the swim-bike-run pacing logic behind this Race Card.ArticleBig gear done right: a guide to low-cadence strengthUseful preparation for a bike course that rides hillier than its own marketing suggests.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2026 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-15.