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Race IntelligenceTallinn, Estonia

IRONMAN Tallinn

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. Get a likely finish range, target paces and a plan for this course.

Race day
7 August 2027
Swim
3.8 km
Bike
180 km
Run
42.2 km

Published route evidence. Final 2027 route pending. Checked 15 Sept 2026.

Official course routeThe real GPS route for each discipline with official GPX data available, drawn in one shared coordinate space.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Tallinn actually gives you

You swim one loop in Lake Raku, ride two fast loops south and west of Tallinn, then run four flat waterfront loops from Unibet Arena toward Stroomi Beach. It is a fast course, but wind and repetition punish early enthusiasm.

Show distances in

Swim

3.8 km

Clear-water Quarry Lake, Single Loop

Layout
1 loop
Setting
Lake Raku

A clear quarry lake offers predictable water and a calm start.

Source: 2027 current route

Bike

180 km

Fast Countryside Roads, Two Loops

Layout
2 loops
Setting
south and west of Tallinn

Two fast countryside loops reward steady power, especially when wind rises on exposed sections.

Source: 2027 current route

Run

42.2 km

Flat Waterfront, Four Loops

Layout
4 loops
Setting
Rocca al Mare and Stroomi Beach

Four flat loops between Rocca al Mare and Stroomi Beach make pacing and fuelling visible.

Source: 2027 current route
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2027 current route; bike, 2027 current route; run, 2027 current route. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2027 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

Settle in Lake Raku

  1. 0–3800 m

    Lake Raku

    Settle into predictable water

    Use the calm quarry swim to establish rhythm without turning the day into a swim race.

    • Settle by 400 m
    • Sight smoothly

Bike

Respect the fast bike

  1. 0 km–90 km

    Loop one through the countryside

    Do not bank time

    The fast opening loop makes overpacing easy. Hold the ceiling you can repeat.

    • Cap power
    • Fuel from the first hour

  2. 90 km–180 km

    Loop two back toward T2

    Let wind change speed, not effort

    Stay patient on exposed sections and arrive at T2 ready to run.

    • Drop power in gusts
    • Finish nutrition before T2

Run

Make four loops honest

  1. 0 km–10.55 km

    Loop one toward Stroomi Beach

    Start below the course's promise

    A flat course feels fast after T2. Make the first loop deliberately easy.

    • Shorten stride
    • Take aid early

  2. 10.55 km–42.2 km

    Loops two to four

    Win through repetition

    Use each loop to check effort, fuelling and wind exposure rather than chasing a single pace number.

    • Reassess each loop
    • Save a finish move

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2027 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
14.4–22.2°CDew point centred on 13.9°C
Wind and gusts
11.5 km/hGusts up to 41.0 km/hPrevailing direction SW
Rain likelihood
Up to 95%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-15.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2027.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2027 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a full distance that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard full distance distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Tallinn is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeFull-distance training plansBuild durability and pacing discipline.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildJoin up the plan and race decisions.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleFull-distance race strategy: calm execution beats chaosPacing discipline for fast full-distance courses.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2027 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-15.