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Race IntelligenceCascais, Portugal

IRONMAN Portugal-Cascais

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
17 October 2026
Swim
3.8 km
Bike
180 km
Run
42.2 km

Published route evidence. Final 2026 route pending. Checked 15 Sept 2026.

Official course routeThe real GPS route for each discipline with official GPX data available, drawn in one shared coordinate space.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Portugal-Cascais actually gives you

You swim a single loop inside the protected waters of Cascais Bay, from Praia da Ribeira to the Clube Naval, then climb 600 m to transition through a genuinely crowded, steep opening stretch. The bike rides two loops along the exposed Estrada do Guincho coastline and through the Sintra-Cascais Natural Park, taking in a full lap of the Estoril Formula 1 Circuit and Lisbon landmarks including the Tower of Belém and Jerónimos Monastery, before returning to Cascais. From the same transition, you run three loops out the same exposed coastal road to Cabo Raso and back, finishing through the crowds at Marina de Cascais.

Show distances in

Swim

3.8 km

Protected Bay, Single Loop

Layout
1 loop
Setting
Cascais Bay, from Praia da Ribeira to the Clube Naval

A single loop inside the protected Cascais Bay, from Praia da Ribeira to the Clube Naval, is calm and sheltered by open-water standards.

Source: 2024-dated file, current course

Bike

180 km

Coastal and Hill Country, Two Loops

Layout
2 loops
Setting
the Portuguese Riviera, Guincho Beach, the Sintra-Cascais Natural Park and the Estoril Formula 1 Circuit, turning at Lisbon landmarks including the Tower of Belém

A two-loop route along the exposed Estrada do Guincho coastline, through the Sintra-Cascais Natural Park and a full lap of the Estoril Formula 1 Circuit before turning near Lisbon's Tower of Belém, is genuinely exposed to Atlantic wind.

Source: 2024-dated file, current course

Run

42.2 km

Coastal, Three Loops

Layout
3 loops
Setting
the Guincho road between Cascais and Cabo Raso, finishing through Marina de Cascais

A three-loop course out the same exposed Guincho road to Cabo Raso and back, finishing through the crowds at Marina de Cascais, is where the bike's wind exposure gets paid for.

Source: 2026-dated file, current course
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2024-dated file, current course; bike, 2024-dated file, current course; run, 2026-dated file, current course. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2026 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

One calm loop, then a real climb to T1

  1. 0–3800 m

    One loop inside Cascais Bay

    Save something for the climb to T1

    A single loop inside the protected bay is calm, but a genuinely steep 600 m climb to transition follows immediately. Settle into rhythm and don't empty the tank before the climb.

    • Settle by 400 m
    • Save legs for the climb to T1

Bike

Two exposed coastal loops through Sintra

  1. 0 km–90 km

    Loop one along the Estrada do Guincho

    Ride the exposed coast on power, not speed

    The route along Guincho Beach and through the Sintra-Cascais Natural Park is genuinely exposed to Atlantic wind. This lap repeats, so hold a power ceiling you can sustain twice.

    • Cap power in exposed sections
    • Fuel on the sheltered stretches

  2. 90 km–180 km

    Loop two, same discipline

    Match lap two to lap one exactly

    The second loop repeats the same exposed coastline and the Estoril Formula 1 Circuit lap. Ride to the same power ceiling rather than fighting the wind for a speed target.

    • Compare effort to lap one
    • Finish planned nutrition before T2

Run

Three loops out the same coast

  1. 0 km–14.07 km

    Loop one out the Guincho road

    Respect the same wind on foot

    The three-loop run repeats the exposed coastal road to Cabo Raso that the bike already tested. Start conservatively rather than fighting the wind at pace.

    • Shorten stride into any headwind
    • Hold opening pace regardless of the marina crowd

  2. 14.07 km–28.13 km

    Loop two

    Use the repeat as an honest check

    Passing Cabo Raso a second time gives a clear read on how the bike's wind exposure is showing up in your legs.

    • Compare loop two to loop one
    • Keep taking aid on schedule

  3. 28.13 km–42.2 km

    Loop three to the finish

    Spend what an honest bike left you

    The final loop finishes through the crowds at Marina de Cascais. If both bike loops and the wind were respected rather than fought, this is where it pays off.

    • Decide the finish honestly
    • Save something for the marina crowd

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2026 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
15.9–21.6°CDew point centred on 15.4°C
Wind and gusts
15.2 km/hGusts up to 58.7 km/hPrevailing direction W
Rain likelihood
Up to 80%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-15.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2026.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2026 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a full distance that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard full distance distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Portugal-Cascais is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeFull-distance training plansTraining plans built for wind-exposed, hilly terrain.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan, feedback and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleFull-distance race strategy: calm execution beats chaosThe pacing discipline a genuinely wind-exposed coastal course demands.ArticleFix the first ten minutes off the bikeUseful before a three-loop run that starts right after a two-loop coastal bike.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2026 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-15.