Coaching

Training Plans

All plansSprintOlympic DistanceHalf Distance / 70.3Full DistanceHalf AquabikeFull AquabikeOff-SeasonPregnancy

Articles

All articlesTraining PhilosophyAthlete Life & LongevityRace Strategy & ExecutionMental PerformanceThe Technical Lab
Race CalendarAboutContact

Race IntelligenceLeeds, United Kingdom

IRONMAN Leeds

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
15 August 2027
Swim
3.8 km
Bike
180 km
Run
42.2 km

Published route evidence. Final 2027 route pending. Checked 15 Sept 2026.

Official course routeThe real GPS route for each discipline with official GPX data available, drawn in one shared coordinate space.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Leeds actually gives you

You swim two loops of Waterloo Lake in Roundhay Park with an in-water turn, ride out to Shadwell before three 55 km loops through North Leeds past Harewood House, Eccup Reservoir and the villages of Thorner, Arthington, Adel and Alwoodley, then run a short climb and an Upper Lake loop before four 10 km laps through the park and residential Roundhay. Yorkshire's genuine hills, 2,574 metres of them on the bike, climbed three times over, are what this course actually asks you to manage.

Show distances in

Swim

3.8 km

Park Lake

Layout
2 loops with an in-water turn
Setting
Waterloo Lake, Roundhay Park

A two-loop lake swim in Roundhay Park, with an in-water turn and a full-lake crowd, gives a controlled but genuinely loud opening.

Source: 2027 current route

Bike

180 km

Hilly Yorkshire Countryside

Layout
an initial 6 km out to Shadwell, then 3 loops of 55 km
Setting
North Leeds via Shadwell, Harewood House, Eccup Reservoir, Golden Acre Park, Thorner, Arthington, Adel and Alwoodley
Elevation
2574 m published profile difference

A genuinely hilly Yorkshire course with 2,574 m of published climbing across three identical loops makes Black Hill Road's repeated summits the defining bike variable.

Source: 2027 current route

Run

42.2 km

Undulating Park and Residential Streets

Layout
a short climb and one Upper Lake loop out of T2, then 4 loops of 10 km
Setting
Roundhay Park's Upper Lake and West Side, and the residential streets of Roundhay

A short climb and lake loop out of T2, then four 10 km loops through the park and residential Roundhay, keep both the terrain and the crowd support constant across the marathon.

Source: 2027 current route
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2027 current route; bike, 2027 current route; run, 2027 current route. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2027 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

Two loops, one turn, stay calm

  1. 0–3800 m

    Two loops with an in-water turn

    Use the lake's crowd, don't chase it

    Two loops of Waterloo Lake, with an in-water turn between them, put a full lakeside crowd on every stroke. Settle into your own rhythm rather than the noise's pace.

    • Settle by 400 m
    • Use the in-water turn as a genuine reset

Bike

Climb Black Hill Road the same way three times

  1. 0 km–61 km

    Out to Shadwell, loop one begins

    Ride Black Hill Road's first summits to a number

    After the 6 km ride out to Shadwell, the course's main climb, Black Hill Road, arrives with its three published summits. This is the single easiest place to overspend on a course you'll ride two more times.

    • Cap power on each summit
    • Fuel on the descents

  2. 61 km–116 km

    Loop two

    Repeat lap one's climbing exactly

    The second 55 km loop retraces the same villages and the same Black Hill Road summits. Match your effort to lap one rather than reacting to how fresh the legs feel.

    • Compare effort to lap one
    • Keep drinking through the exposed sections

  3. 116 km–180 km

    Loop three

    Ride the final climbs the same way as the first

    The third and final loop repeats the same 2,574 m of published climbing one more time. Protect the same power ceiling all the way back to Roundhay Park.

    • Hold the same climbing number as loops one and two
    • Finish planned nutrition before T2

Run

Use four loops as four honest checks

  1. 0 km–2 km

    Out of T2, past the Upper Lake

    Let the opening climb feel easy

    A short climb out of transition and a loop of the picturesque Upper Lake open the run. Use it to settle rather than racing off a demanding bike.

    • Shorten stride on the opening climb
    • Let the Upper Lake loop feel controlled

  2. 2 km–12 km

    Loop one of four

    Settle into the residential streets

    The main loop moves through the West Side of the park and the residential streets of Roundhay, lined with spectator support. Hold a genuinely easy pace on this first full loop.

    • Check effort against your opening cap
    • Use every aid station

  3. 12 km–22 km

    Loop two

    Use the repeat as an honest check

    Passing the same undulating streets a second time gives a clear read on how loop one's pace is holding. Adjust deliberately here rather than on the final loop.

    • Compare loop two to loop one
    • Keep fuelling on schedule

  4. 22 km–32 km

    Loop three

    Protect what three climbing bike loops left you

    The third loop is where a genuinely hilly bike course starts to show up in the legs. Manage effort rather than chasing a pace that's slipping.

    • Reassess goal pace honestly
    • Keep taking aid on schedule

  5. 32 km–42.2 km

    Loop four to the finish arch

    Spend what three honest loops left you

    The final loop finishes under the iconic IRONMAN Leeds finish arch, with live music and DJs creating a party atmosphere. If the day went to plan, this is where it pays off.

    • Decide the finish honestly
    • Save something for the red carpet

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2027 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
14.0–22.0°CDew point centred on 12.4°C
Wind and gusts
15.6 km/hGusts up to 49.0 km/hPrevailing direction WSW
Rain likelihood
Up to 85%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-15.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2027.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2027 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a full distance that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard full distance distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Leeds is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeFull-distance training plansTraining plans for the climbing durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan, feedback and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleFull-distance race strategy: calm execution beats chaosThe pacing discipline a genuinely hilly, multi-loop bike course demands.ArticleFix the first ten minutes off the bikeUseful before a four-loop run that starts right after three loops of real Yorkshire climbing.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2027 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-15.