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Race IntelligenceRuidoso, NM, United States

IRONMAN 70.3 Ruidoso New Mexico

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
11 July 2027
Swim
1.9 km
Bike
90 km
Run
21.1 km

Published route evidence. Final 2027 route pending. Checked 19 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Ruidoso New Mexico actually gives you

You swim two laps of Grindstone Lake's clear, cool mountain water, ride a hilly 90 km course from Grindstone Lake through town and out along the highway toward Hondo, tackling what the organiser itself calls epic climbs in the Sierra Blanca foothills, then run 21.1 km through Ruidoso's mountain villages and scenic neighbourhoods, past the local wildlife, to finish in Midtown. Branded 'Race the Peaks', this course is genuinely mountainous, and it sits at real altitude that makes every hard effort, especially the Hondo climbs, cost more than it would at sea level.

Show distances in

Swim

1.9 km

Lake, Two Laps

Layout
2 laps
Setting
Grindstone Lake

A two-lap swim in Grindstone Lake's clear, cool mountain water gives a scenic, straightforward opening before the bike's real test begins.

Source: 2027 current route

Bike

90 km

Hilly Mountain Highway, With Climbs Out to Hondo

Setting
from Grindstone Lake through town onto the highway toward Hondo, in the Sierra Blanca foothills

A hilly route out toward Hondo, with the organiser's own prose calling the climbs epic, is genuinely demanding, and made harder still by real mountain altitude thinning the air on every climb.

Source: 2027 current route

Run

21.1 km

Rolling, Mountain Villages and Neighbourhoods

Setting
through Ruidoso's mountain villages and scenic neighbourhoods, finishing in Midtown

A rolling course through Ruidoso's mountain villages and neighbourhoods, with real wildlife along the route, tests whatever the Hondo climbs left in the legs.

Source: 2027 current route
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, 2027 current route; bike, 2027 current route; run, 2027 current route. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2027 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

A scenic, straightforward mountain lake

  1. 0–1900 m

    Two laps of Grindstone Lake

    Settle into the mountain water

    Clear, cool water in one of Ruidoso's most scenic settings gives a straightforward opening. Settle into rhythm before the bike's real demands begin.

    • Settle by 300 m
    • Hold a controlled, repeatable effort

Bike

Ride the Hondo climbs by effort, not by the riders around you

  1. 0 km–20 km

    Out through town

    Warm into the climbing at altitude

    Leaving Grindstone Lake through town onto the highway, this is where you set the tone for the climbs ahead. At real mountain altitude, an effort that feels sustainable can cost more than usual.

    • Cap power on the early rollers
    • Fuel before the climbing starts

  2. 20 km–55 km

    The climbs out to Hondo

    Ride the epic climbs on power, not on the group

    The organiser's own course description calls this section's climbs epic. Hold your power ceiling rather than matching the effort of riders around you, especially at this altitude.

    • Hold your power number on every climb
    • Fuel and hydrate through the climbing, not after it

  3. 55 km–90 km

    Back into town

    Protect the run on the return

    Returning from Hondo back into town, hold your discipline through the closing kilometres rather than chasing back time spent on the climbs.

    • Finish nutrition before T2
    • Stay smooth into the dismount

Run

Mountain villages, real wildlife, a Midtown finish

  1. 0 km–5.3 km

    Into the mountain villages

    Open conservatively after a genuinely hard bike

    Leaving White Mountain Sports Complex into Ruidoso's mountain villages and neighbourhoods, this is where the cumulative cost of the Hondo climbs and the altitude first shows up. Start controlled.

    • Shorten stride out of T2
    • Hold effort, not pace, on any rise

  2. 5.3 km–10.55 km

    Through scenic neighbourhoods

    Use the rolling terrain as an honest check

    Rolling terrain through the neighbourhoods, with local wildlife along the route, gives a genuine read on how the bike's climbing has left your legs.

    • Reassess pace against effort
    • Keep taking aid on schedule

  3. 10.55 km–15.8 km

    Protecting the effort

    Manage what a hard, high-altitude bike left you

    This is where a genuinely demanding bike course, ridden at real mountain altitude, asks the most of the run. Manage the effort you actually have.

    • Reassess goal pace honestly
    • Keep hydrating on schedule

  4. 15.8 km–21.1 km

    Into Midtown

    Spend what a disciplined climb left you

    The finish in the heart of Midtown Ruidoso rewards a bike that respected the Hondo climbs and a run paced to real mountain conditions.

    • Decide the finish honestly
    • Run the last kilometres on effort, not memory of pace

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2027 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
14.9–29.0°CDew point centred on 10.1°C
Wind and gusts
6.5 km/hGusts up to 37.4 km/hPrevailing direction WSW
Rain likelihood
Up to 80%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-19.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2027.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2027 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a 70.3 that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard 70.3 distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Ruidoso New Mexico is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeHalf-distance training plansTraining plans for the climbing durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleHow to pace a 70.3 so you can still runThe longer version of the pacing logic behind this Race Card.ArticleFix the first ten minutes off the bikeUseful before a run that starts right after a genuinely hilly, high-altitude bike.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2027 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 19 Sept 2026.