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Race IntelligenceEilat, Israel

Challenge Israman

Know your day before you race it.

Enter four numbers you already train with. You get a likely finish range, target paces and watts, and how I would race this course.

Race day
29 January 2027
Swim
1.9 km
Bike
90 km
Run
21.1 km

Published route evidence. Final 2027 route pending. Checked 15 Sept 2026.

01 Race Card

Build my Race Card

Your first range uses conservative assumptions. Add optional evidence to make it more specific. It is calculated in your browser and saved only on this device.

Your numbers
Distance unit
Weight unit
You and this race
Sharpen your range with more detailOptional. Recent swim, bike and run results, equipment and transitions.

Add only the evidence you have. Every control changes a discipline range, its uncertainty, or an execution-risk explanation.

Swim evidence

Replaces the broad pool-to-open-water assumption.

Bike and equipment

These replace broad mass, aerodynamics, tyre, and power-to-speed assumptions.

Run evidence

A recent effort and honest durability/acclimation answers refine the post-bike run.

Race execution

Transition proficiency changes the T1/T2 range and how wet conditions are treated.

02 The course

What Israman actually gives you

You swim one triangular loop from Eilat's Royal Beach, ride Route 12's steep mountain climb and exposed rolling hills above the Gulf of Eilat and the notoriously windy Arava Valley, then run downhill from Netafim into a lively Eilat finish. The bike carries real climbing and real wind here. Ride both with discipline and the downhill run becomes a reward, not a survival exercise.

Show distances in

Swim

1.9 km

Sea Inlet, Triangular Course

Layout
1 loop
Setting
Royal Beach, Eilat

A single-loop triangular sea-inlet swim from Royal Beach is the most controlled part of the day.

Source: current course description

Bike

90 km

Mountain Climb and Exposed Rolling Hills

Setting
Route 12, overlooking the Gulf of Eilat and the Arava Valley

A genuine mountain climb followed by exposed, notoriously windy rolling terrain along the Arava Valley makes this the defining effort of the race.

Source: current course description

Run

21.1 km

Net Downhill Towards the City

Setting
from Netafim downhill along Route 12 into Eilat

A net downhill run from Netafim into Eilat rewards legs that survived the bike's climbing and wind intact.

Source: current course description
Where these course facts come from

These facts come from the organiser’s latest published material: swim, current course description; bike, current course description; run, current course description. They describe the character of the course. They do not confirm the final 2027 route.

03 Race plan

How I’d want you to race it

One job for each part of this course. The distance markers tell you when the job changes. The course tells you why.

Swim

One clean triangle

  1. 0–1900 m

    One triangular loop from Royal Beach

    Sight the buoys, not the field

    A single triangular sea-inlet loop gives you a straightforward swim. Settle into rhythm early and sight the buoy line cleanly.

    • Settle by 300 m
    • Sight the triangle's corners deliberately

Bike

Earn the mountain, respect the wind

  1. 0 km–30 km

    Onto Route 12

    Get organised before the climb starts

    The route moves quickly onto Route 12 and its early rolling terrain. Use this stretch to settle position and start fuelling before the real climbing begins.

    • Start drinking before the terrain steepens
    • Check effort before average speed

  2. 30 km–60 km

    The mountain climb

    Ride the steep climb to a number, not a feeling

    This is the defining effort of the bike. Cap power or heart rate deliberately here, because the wind on the way back will collect anything overspent.

    • Set a hard ceiling before the climb
    • Fuel on the climb, not just before it

    A climb raced too hard here is a headwind fought too weak later

  3. 60 km–90 km

    The Arava Valley rolling hills

    Respect the wind, don't fight it

    The exposed rolling hills over the Arava Valley are known for gusty wind. Ride to your planned effort regardless of what the wind does to your speed, and arrive at T2 with something left.

    • Ride the effort, not the number on the screen
    • Finish your nutrition before T2

Run

Collect the downhill

  1. 0 km–10.5 km

    Downhill from Netafim

    Let the downhill work for you, carefully

    The run starts downhill along Route 12 towards Eilat. Use the net downhill to run efficiently without letting the grade pull you into a pace your legs haven't earned.

    • Shorten your stride on the downhill sections
    • Take the early aid stations deliberately

  2. 10.5 km–21.1 km

    Into the city and the finish

    Finish what the mountain and the wind left you

    By the time the course flattens into the city, you'll know exactly how well the bike was paced. Race what the day has actually given you.

    • Compare the back half to the front honestly
    • Keep the finish decision yours

04 Race week

What I would keep an eye on

There is no useful 2027 forecast this far out. For now, past race dates give us a point of reference. Closer to the race, the forecast will tell us whether the plan needs changing.

Forecast statusToo early for a forecast

A race-day forecast is not meaningful yet; check back closer to the event.

Temperature
9.9–21.1°CDew point centred on 4.8°C
Wind and gusts
8.7 km/hGusts up to 38.5 km/hPrevailing direction NNE
Rain likelihood
Up to 35%Wet-surface uncertainty retained

Historical baseline, 2019–2025 · Open-Meteo historical archive · Updated 2026-09-15.Historical comparison only. This is not a forecast for 2027.

05 Method

What goes into your range

Your CSS, FTP, weight and run threshold create the first range. Open-water, bike, run and execution evidence can replace broad assumptions. Course data and the historical conditions baseline shape every simulation.

  1. Your numbersCSS · FTP · weight · run threshold
  2. This raceDistance · water type · elevation · exposure
  3. Your Race CardFinish and discipline ranges, with target paces and watts

Confidence is built from four inputs

Athlete evidence
Builds with recent open-water, bike and run efforts
Bike setup
Builds with equipment, mass, aero and tyre detail
Course evidence
Partial while the 2027 route is unconfirmed
Race-week conditions
Historical baseline until a forecast is useful
How the model works

It starts with the targets in your Race Card, then samples the parts of a 70.3 that vary: open-water pace, transitions, bike speed at the planned power, and the drop in run performance after the swim and bike. Repeating that calculation produces a likely range rather than a single heroic number.

The current time calculation uses this race’s published distances, or standard 70.3 distances where none are published, with the available course headings, elevation and exposure evidence. Weather scenarios vary temperature, dew point, wind, gusts, rain and water conditions together. Unknown route detail stays visible as uncertainty rather than false precision.

It is not predicting your exact finishing time, placing, or race-day weather. It answers a narrower question: given the plan and the information we have, what range of day is plausible, and where is the uncertainty coming from?

Confidence is not a permanent “low”. It is recalculated across four separate inputs:

  • Your evidence: consistent inputs and recent race-like swim, bike, and run results.
  • Bike setup: measured or specified aerodynamics rather than a broad prior.
  • The course: verified distance and route character, including elevation and technical sections.
  • The conditions: a current forecast is more useful than a historical comparison.

It starts low when those inputs are broad. It can become moderate or high as the evidence improves. A narrower range means better information, not a guarantee.

06 Next steps

If Israman is your race

Your range is built on today’s numbers. The months of training before race day decide what those numbers become.

The work from here.

Self-guided routeHalf-distance training plansTraining plans for the fitness and durability this course asks for.See the plans Personalised routeWork with me on the whole buildCoaching when you want the plan, feedback and race decisions joined up.See coaching

Further reading

ArticleHow to pace a 70.3 so you can still runThe longer version of the swim-bike-run pacing logic behind this Race Card.ArticleBig gear done right: a guide to low-cadence strengthUseful preparation for a genuine mountain climb on the bike.

Evidence

Sources and verification

Course status: Partially verified. The organiser’s descriptions and latest published route profiles are in use. The final 2027 route is not yet confirmed. Last checked 2026-09-15.